By a Newsnet reporter 
An exclusive poll for the New Statesman magazine by polling company ICD research, and published to coincide with the publication of the Scottish government's consultation paper on the independence referendum, shows that the independence case is making strong headway.
According to the headline figures for the poll, 44% of Scots are in favour of independence, with 45% opposed. The result is well within the normal margin of error for polls, meaning that the two options are effectively neck-and-neck as the campaign begins in earnest.
In other good news for the Scottish government, an overwhelming 72% of Scots polled say that they agree that the Scottish government alone should determine the timing and question of the historic referendum. On this issue, public opinion in Scotland is markedly different from opinion in the rest of the UK. Of those polled across the UK, 41% say that the question and timing should be determined by Westminster, with only 34% in agreement with the Scottish government's position that these are matters for the Scottish Parliament and the people of Scotland.
Amongst those across the UK, the poll found a majority in favour of Scottish independence, with 38% in favour as opposed to 34% against. However most voters throughout the UK do not believe that Scotland will be better off as a result of independence, with only 20% of UK voters believing this would be the case, whereas 52% of UK-wide voters believe that Scotland would be worse off after independence. The report in the New Statesman did not give the figures for the response of Scottish voters to this question.
Conversely, 36 per cent of UK voters believe that England would benefit if Scotland left the UK, compared with 34 per cent who believe it would suffer. This finding shows the effect of the "subsidy junkie" myth which has been widely propagated by the anti-independence parties and the UK media. One of the prime tasks of pro-independence campaigners will be to overturn this myth amongst the Scottish electorate.
The survey found clear support across the UK for so-called 'devo max'. Asked if Scotland should be given full control over its tax and spending, 51% agreed with only 32% opposed. Again the poll did not give a breakdown of the Scottish response to this question, although other polls recently have shown that there is widespread support for such a move within Scotland.
The poll confirms the findings of other recent polls which show that Scots are increasingly leaning towards independence and restoring full control of the nation's finances and destiny to the Scottish Parliament. With more than 2 years to go before the decision is taken, the final result is far too close to call and for the pro-independence camp there is everything to play for. With a buoyant SNP up against demoralised and divided anti-independence parties, Scotland is closer to returning to its rightful place amongst the sovereign nations of the world than at any time during the past 300 years.
The poll of 1000 people was conducted by ICD for the New Statesman on 21st and 22nd January.
Welcoming the poll the Director of the SNP's Referendum Campaign Angus Robertson MP said:
"This is an excellent poll result confirming that support for independence is running neck and neck with 44% in favour to only 45% against.
"And coming on the day the First Minister confirmed the question voters in Scotland will be asked on independence this is just the beginning of the campaign and the great debate that we will have across the country.
"Results like this show that independence for Scotland is achievable and with more and more people supporting the principle that decisions about what happens in Scotland should be made by the people of Scotland it is a very welcome result."
Johann Lamont has a lot to learn and no time to learn it.
She thinks that cheap shots in this debate gain her points and she is truly soporific in public debate. She cannot deal with the big questions because she doesn't even see them
I am sure she has some redeeming features but....
Why was there no Tory on the panel?
Why was there no Tory on the panel?
Clootie
The BBC will "balance" the programme as far as is possible by having similar numbers of Labour SNP Tory and Lib Dem supporters by this of course skews the audience in an independence referendum,
Did you notice the subliminal bias by BBC graphics dept during the afternoon coverage showing the saltire as a small cog in the larger union wheel.
44% for and 45% against and with over 2 years to go until the referendum it's definitely everything to play for.
I watched the Burns Night debate on BBC1 and I could not help laughing at how cool and calm Nicola Sturgeon was when she locked horns with Jim Wallace.
Wallace almost came off his seat several times and appeared so agitated he was like a child in a high chair screaming for his dummy.
The audience hardly responded to Lamont and if she is the face of the no vote then they do have problems.
So from the Libdem/Tory camp perhaps Ruthie Davidson or Danny boy Alexander.
Heard the same old arguements about the unknowns about Scottish Independence from the unionists this morning on the radio. Cant the SNP and others bat this back with the fact that we can neither predict what is ahead of us in terms of saying with the union, Welfare cuts illegal wars who predicted this would happe?. Once this weak strain of the unionist arguement is blown out of the water the poll ratings will rise.
This dictator thing seems to be a thread pervading a few forums and tv debates (ersatz Paxo interview). The unionists are focusing completly on Alex Salmond and have him targetted at all levels. Ignoring all other SNP politicians
Call Kaye, MUST LISTEN, scroll the programme forward to 51:50 and listen to Ian from Edinburgh.
www.bbc.co.uk/.../b019p76n
"Alex Salmond a dictator, evil, dictator, nasty bit of work"
Another secret recruiter for the SNP?; though he seemed on good terms with Ms Goldie.
Just watched FMQ's. Not too sure I like the sound of retaining the Bank of England as our central bank. Why can't we have our own state owned bank?
The anti independence crowd will make hay with this.
BeltaneFire 2012-01-26 13:53
“The only poll that matters is the referendum, though good polls or poll trends are good news for parties.”
Exactly BF, good news for the parties, but what does it add to the debate?
Obfuscation is the opposite of clarity.
Take for example the SNParty consultation document.
From Mr Salmonds foreword:
"This consultation paper seeks views on what the ballot paper should say, what spending
limits should be set on campaign groups and how the referendum should be managed and regulated. it sets out the timetable FOR PARLIAMENTARY AND PUBLIC DEBATE which will ensure that the scottish people are able to take an informed decision about their future." My capitals!
5 How to Comment
• This consultation is your opportunity to shape the referendum on Scotland’s
constitutional future. Responses should be made by Friday 11 May 2012.
• It would be helpful to have your response by email or using the electronic response
form. The electronic response form can be accessed at the following website
address: consult.scotland.gov.uk. You can also email your response to the
mailbox below.
• We are, of course, happy to receive written submissions too.
Handling your response
We need to know how you wish your response to be handled and, in particular, whether
you are happy for your response to be made public. Please complete and return the
Respondent Information Form which forms part of the separate consultation questionnaire
as this will ensure that we treat your response appropriately. IF YOU ASK FOR YOUR RESPONSE NOT TO BE PUBLISHED WE WILL REGARD IT AS CONFIDENTIAL AND TREAT IT ACCORDINGLY. All respondents
should be aware that the Scottish Government is subject to the provisions of the Freedom
of Information (Scotland) Act 2002 and would therefore have to consider any request made to it under the Act for information relating to responses made to this consultation exercise.
Why should anyone wish their response to be regarded as CONFIDENTIAL? It is supposed to be a public consultation. I suspect this is to cover members of political parties who have no right to a vote on this matter.
Angus Roberstson said:"Results like this show that independence for Scotland is achievable and with more and more people supporting the principle that decisions about what happens in Scotland should be made by the people of Scotland it is a very welcome result."
Of course he would say that, but what was the question asked?
“An exclusive New Statesman/ICD poll has some encouraging news for the SNP leader. Asked if Scotland should become an independent country, 45 per cent of Scottish voters say no and 44 per cent say yes, a higher level of support for independence than previously indicated by polls.”
Poll taken: 21st-22nd January? No data published.
Actually it is probably all my fault. I said, "A pox on both their houses to the Tory/liblab coalition.
Claim of Right debate is in the Parliament today starting at 2.55.
2014 mass protest against the BBC by begining 2014 refusing to pay TV Licence. By the time they get around to legal action Scotland will be on the way to independence and disbanding the BBC in Scotland. It would starve them of revenue and focus attention on bias.
I think we need to move on a bit regarding watching TV on the internet.
It's ok for individual viewing but not so good for family viewing, but I do believe the new generation of TVs will allow a TV to behave like a PC with an internet connection so that everyone can watch at the same time. Maybe that's the time to do a boycott of the BBC licence.
As a matter of interest, do political parties allow 16/17 year old adults, to join, with full voting rights?
The highlight of the debate for me was when the young chap in the audience referred to Wallace as the old guy with the grey hair - who looks like a relic, and speaks like a relic.
We should be working on the youngsters for future support. A young lady took Wallace to task last night for stating that the only people who should be allowed to vote in the referendum were those who voted in the Scottish elections last year.
The SNP want to give the vote to 16/17 year old adults. The unionists want to disenfranchise them. They're considered old enough to marry, fight, kill and die for their country, pay taxes, stand trial as an adult and so on, but not considered by the unionists as being responsible enough to have a say in the future of their country.
The wee booklet Your Scotland Your Future must be given more publicity. It covers a lot of the "substance" that people are asking for on and the choices that we will face:-
Defence
Energy
Broadcasting
Justice
Transport
Finance
Pensions
This is a very good starting place for explanations of what an independent Scotland will need.
farrochie 2012-01-26 15:43
The wee booklet Your Scotland Your Future must be given more publicity. It covers a lot of the "substance" that people are asking for on and the choices that we will face:-
Defence
Energy
Broadcasting
Justice
Transport
Finance
Pensions
This is a very good starting place for explanations of what an independent Scotland will need.