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Welcoming the publication of a poll from IPSOS/MORI in the Times and Sun putting support for independence at 35 per cent – up two points since the last poll published at the end of May – Scottish National Party Campaign Director Angus Robertson said:

"Compared to the poll commissioned by Alistair Darling on the eve of the Yes campaign launch, support for independence is up by two points to 35 per cent and opposition is down two points – and a MORI poll last December had independence at 29 per cent, or six points less than in this poll.

"Things are moving in the right direction, and we are very confident of achieving a Yes vote for an independent Scotland in the autumn 2014 referendum.

"When people are asked if they want Scotland’s Parliament to have job-creating economic powers and control of welfare policy – so that we can build prosperity and social justice in place of Tory cuts and recession – or whether they believe that Holyrood should have the powers to get rid of Trident from Scottish waters, the answer is a resounding Yes. 

"And we believe that the positive case for an independent Scotland will overcome the negativity of the Tory-led anti-independence campaign.

"As the campaign moves forward, we will reach out to every community in Scotland with the message that it is fundamentally better for all of us if decisions affecting Scotland are taken by the people who care about Scotland most – that is, the people of Scotland.”

The survey follows relentless media attention around the Queen's Diamond Jubillee and the arrival of the Olympic torch to Scotland.

The poll showed Mr Salmond's approval rating still the best of all party leaders, however the gap between those who think he is doing a good job and those who don’t has dropped nine points to plus 13, just ahead of the Greens' Patrick Harvie on plus 12 points.

Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont’s support has seen a surprising lift since January, and now sits on plus nine points, up 15.

Although Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie saw his approval rating increase by seven points, he is still below zero at minus four.  However the worst of all is Ruth Davidson of the Scottish Conservatives who scored minus six.

On the leadership rating figures, Mr Robertson said:

"These are fantastic leadership ratings for Alex Salmond – any political leader in the western world would give their eye teeth to have such strongly positive ratings after more than five years in office – and they confirm that he is far and away the most popular political leader in Scotland and the UK.  The First Minister’s net approval ratings are double now what they were two years ago."

Comments  

 
# Big Eye 2012-06-19 11:49
This should be called the Jubilee poll or is the timing just a coincidence..as if!
 
 
# creag an tuirc 2012-06-19 12:05
I don't believe this poll for a simple reason, Johann Lamont’s figures. That's all.
 
 
# Dundonian West 2012-06-19 13:12
OT? Brave Premiere.YouTube,Scottis h Government.
Forget your Jubilee Celebrations and the London Olympics.
Going on general release in a couple of days.First Minister over there helping to promote this film,and other oppportunities in Scotland.
www.youtube.com/.../
I'm signing in,and may make a comment!
Certainly linking it to my Facebook page.
Internet is great---it sidesteps the TV News in Scotland and the Scottish papers.
 
 
# SolTiger 2012-06-19 13:55
One of the strangest things about Brave is how terrible the "american" trailer is.

It makes it seem like some kind of disney princess story.

The JAPANESE trailer on the other hand, makes the film seem amazing.
www.youtube.com/.../
 
 
# Aplinal 2012-06-20 09:56
I agree, it even SOUNDS better in Japanese ;-)
 
 
# scottish_skier 2012-06-19 13:14
I commented on this poll here earlier:

newsnetscotland.com/.../...

People might also wish to note the polls in the run-up to the devolution referendum:

scottishaffairs.org/.../...

Q1 – Parliament
Poll average = 66.6%
Result = 74.3%
Poll error = -7.7%

Q2 – Tax powers
Poll average = 54.3%
Result = 63.5%
Poll error = -9.2%

This is typical of independence referenda. They always deliver a much higher yes share than predicted. Quebec polls showed only 1/3 support well in advance of the vote which surged to just shy of 50% on the day.
 
 
# John Lyons 2012-06-19 15:03
Skier, that's very interesting, but I'm not prepared to accept victory on the basis that it happened once. Any other examples please?

Thanks.
 
 
# scottish_skier 2012-06-19 17:53
Based on a quick search, exluding the autonomous dependencies of Nevis & Bermuda, for straight Y/N results I can find, the Y has won ~97% of the time. Quebec is the only remotely comparable example where a Y/N has not subsequently resulted in independence.
 
 
# John Lyons 2012-06-20 09:54
Thanks Skier, but where? I know Czechoslovakia voted for a break up, but were the pre referendum polls 30% below reality there?

Where else have there been referendums on independence?

Thanks.
 
 
# scottish_skier 2012-06-20 19:54
en.wikipedia.org/.../...

Some well known examples.

For the few that did not result in (or preceed by a relatively short time period) independence, only Quebec comes close. However, the history of Quebec/reasons behind the independence movement there are quite different those for Scotland.
 
 
# chicmac 2012-06-19 21:27
The graph I have for ICM polls at the devolution referendum, which I have posted several times here and many times elsewhere, showed a much bigger difference from the run in position to actual result. (Where 'run in' = last couple of weeks)

i51.photobucket.com/.../...

The result delta (read from graph) for the last ICM poll on Sept 2nd (Referendum was on 11th)

Q1-Parliament
Poll=63%
Result=74.3%
Poll error= 11%+ below actuality.

Q2-Tax Raising Powers
Poll=48%
Result=63.5
Poll error= 15.5% below actuality

For the ICM poll on 1st September

Q1-Parliament
Poll=60%
Result=74.3%
Poll error= 14%+ below actuality.

Q2-Tax Raising Powers
Poll=45%
Result=63.5
Poll error= 18.5% below actuality

This graph was from a Scottish Affairs Report of the time (whose reports are used in briefings for MSPs amongst other things).

Note, that the average electorate member only looks at polls in the last couple of weeks of an election campaign.

Also, the tax raising powers poll results above were accompanied by newspaper articles saying this option was a definite NO and even the Yes to devolution was touch and go.

The deltas between poll and result for the devolution referendum were much higher than the 8% delta which prompted the Tories to call for an investigation after one UK GE. (even though there was a Tory 'Shame factor' which explained that delta). However, I guess the pro devolution camp was just too delighted with the result to pursue a similar investigation.


Having said all that, the recent poll is not in the two week run up to the referendum so it is all the more worrying for that.

There are several things the Yes camp have done wrong, IMO, of late but I will not be airing them here.
 
 
# alasdairmac 2012-06-19 14:54
What were the other figures,. anyone know? eg for DevoMax (if asked) and "No"
 
 
# daveniz 2012-06-19 14:57
don't buy into these obviously rigged polls by a unionist paper they really want people to believe that only a third of Scots want independance and the other 2 thirds are unionist! it isn't true these polls are to decide the undecided into thinking the majority don't want independance and go with the perseved majority it all psychological crap its like allister darling recent comment quote "if you ask the average englishman, Welshman or northern Irishman if scotland should keep the £ after independance they will say no" as a reason to stay in the union! that is a psychological crap and leading into a desired wishful response that the unionist media without evidence will continue to push as fact and how the hell would he know what rUK would be thinking after independance! its a part of the unionist campaign of negative reinforcment for example "if you believe your poor, then you are poor" the polls are as rigged as the polls before may 2011 and we know what happened there! the polls have been the same for near 30 years only a third want independance believe that then you'll believe anything! think about it what unionist hasn't said anything that tries to undermime independance without saying your not capable of anything or you can't get anything without westminister! its negative reinforcment don't fall for it!
 
 
# exel 2012-06-20 10:37
Neither do I.
Best way is ignoring them.

Why are the SNP not producing the “independently analyzed analyses” of their consultation? The responses to that will give much more information than these polls
 
 
# Dundonian West 2012-06-19 15:35
OT.SG offers water to England.Now it's official,but we're too poor,too small and too dumb!
bbc.co.uk/.../...
I suppose the NO camp,including Lamont, will tell us it's runnin oot!
 
 
# xyz 2012-06-19 15:53
Just so long as we don't have to pay for the water to be sent south. .. I can hear Westminster now .. "we need a UK wide water grid where all consumers pay their equal share of the grid". Nae chance.
 
 
# gus1940 2012-06-20 08:26
I have commented on this water matter at length on scotsman.com and would be interested to hear if anybody agrees with my thoughts.
 
 
# Holebender 2012-06-20 11:16
Equal share of the grid? Surely the only fair pricing model is to penalise those who live furthest from the main centres of consumption while subsidising those who consume the most? The national water grid must follow precedent and charge Scots through the nose while subsidising consumers in the SE of England.

You know it makes sense!
 
 
# oldnat 2012-06-19 17:02
Politicians and journalists usually overreact to changes in polling numbers (often because they have no clue as to the random fluctuations that occur in any poll).

For example, in this MORI poll, they have sampled a slightly different group of people.

Among those certain to vote 79.4% were born in Scotland, compared to 82.6% in January (3.2% less).

15.3% were born in other parts of the UK compared to 12.7% in January (2.6% more).

5.4% were born in other parts of the UK compared to 4.7% in January (0.6% more).

The proportions of those with different national identities also shows a change.

52.2% were Scottish/More Scottish than British, compared to 54.6% in January (2.4% less).

33.5% were equally Scottish and British, compared to 30.6% in January (2.9% more).

11% were British/More British than Scottish , compared to 11.6% in January (0.6% less).

If you ask slightly different samples of people then you get slightly different results.

People who don't believe the poll results, because they don't like them and think that every poll is rigged by a Unionist conspiracy really need to learn a bit about how polling works!

To Jim Johnston (below)

Good questions to ask!

No reputable polling company will deliberately ask misleading questions (politics is a side issue for them - they make their cash from commercial polling, and need to protect their reputation).

However, those paying for the poll determine the questions. The most important thing to look for is "What questions weren't asked?" In this poll, for example, the Devo Max question wasn't asked.
 
 
# Jim Johnston 2012-06-19 18:32
Sound counceling oldnat.

My personal criteria before reading any poll result is who paid for it, what group was polled, how many were polled and ...."What was the question again ?"

I'm now favouring a change of referrendum question to two words.

SCOTLAND INDEPENDENT....... YES / NO.

Or is that a rigged question ?
 
 
# bringiton 2012-06-19 18:16
Slightly OT but have just seen a bit on the news where A.Darling was lecturing a Scottish business meeting that he couldn't possibly have done what he did if he he was in charge of a small country like Scotland.In other words if you want to fail big time then you need a big country behind you.
I find it strange that Scottish business people would waste their time listening to a failed finance minister who was responsible in a large part for the current economic disaster facing us all.
If this is the best that the NoScotland campaign can come up with then independence is guaranteed.
 
 
# Cattanach69 2012-06-19 18:40
I cant fathom why anybody would vote Labour who wants or intends to vote No! You are voting against a fairer, more just, economically healthier Scotland!It beggers belief!

Maybe it is true that some folk are just too thick to be trusted to run their own lives?
 
 
# Silverytay 2012-06-19 20:12
3rd Time Lucky ? previous 2 attempts have stated that I have no right to post here .
The sun,s front page take on this is , Indy poll support slumps .
As others on this site and other pro Independence sites have stated , considering the jubilee , the olympics and the lies , smears and scare stories by the m.s.m ! the Independence vote is holding up well .
We all know that we are in this for the long haul and our time will come in 2014 .
If the no campaign have had a bounce from the jubilee ? hopefully we will get one from the commonwealth games , the homecoming and the golf .
Let the dependency party,s and their friends in the media use up their ammunition against Alex Salmond and the S.N.P and hopefully the yes campaign can take them in the flanks when the time is right .
The other thing that the no campaign have to be careful about is the Scottish psyche .
If they keep up the personal attacks on Alex Salmond they run a real danger of turning the Scottish people against them and on to our side .
As I stated on a previous post it is no use just posting on sites like this and other pro Independence sites ! we have to take our facts and positivity onto the m.s.m sites while we can .
If the no campaign cant deal a fatal blow to us this year then they will have no option but to try shutting us down just like the biased b.b.c Scotland .

[For posters registered with NNS the "no right to post" is just a computer glitch. Usually solved by closing the site, then re-opening it. - NNS Mod Team]
 
 
# peter,aberdeenshire 2012-06-19 20:13
I saw this today in the Sun but also found the comment on Sun says worth a read.
I have though no time for the hysterical garbage spouted by Davidson and the fragrant Ms Lamont, be still my beating heart. :-)
 
 
# Silverytay 2012-06-19 20:52
Thanks for info mod,s
 
 
# youoffmyplanet 2012-06-20 02:15
Please please please stop commenting 'obviously rigged' on articles such as these...it makes me die inside every single time.

Polls come and go, some have a good sample...some less so, some asking decent questions...some not, however, some of you cry 'biased, conspiracy, EVIL UNIONIST PLOT' at any story that shows a bump in the road for the SNP and independence.

Quite frankly the threat against us getting a Yes vote in 2014 has an increasing amount to do with the denial of some within the movement than it does the skepticism of the unionists - support for independence and the SNP is not on a permanently upward trajectory, and I say that as a supporter of both!

The interpretation of monthly polls can be hideously biased against nationalists, but the actual figures.....you really sound barking mad when you contradict them every time regardless of the polling company or newspaper.

To see in cold, hard terms that the figure still hovers around 35% is not very encouraging. If it were at 45% I would feel more confident that in the proceeding years we could build up a solid 10% increase in support. As it stands it needs to be a confident 20%.....which is a different level of effort entirely. The goodwill from the Olympics will likely last until the start of 2013, it is then when the SNP should dust themselves off and start using their campaign resources, not now.
 
 
# Legerwood 2012-06-20 09:52
Agree with you.

This story takes December as its comparator yet the story in the MMS such as the Herald takes January, support for Independence 40% support, as the comparator. This paints a slightly different picture to the one reported here.

With polls it is the overall trend that is important not the ups and downs from one poll to the next.
 
 
# mealer 2012-06-20 10:27
Scottish Skier,
I appreciate that Independence referendums almost always result in independence.Occasionally the first attempt has failed to be followed soon after by a successful campaign (Malta?).And also that the pro-indepence vote tends to outstrip the opinion polls.But what were the circumstances? Did the pro-indy campaign in Quebec have any media support? I would assume that some of the Francophone media would have supported Indy.Or at least not been overtly hostile to it.For our campaign to succeed,we have to bypass the media and take it directly into communities.Make independence exciting,or atleast quite interesting, to folk.But we dont want to bore folk with it.To the point of annoyance.And thats going to be a difficult balance to strike.
 
 
# scottish_skier 2012-06-21 07:08
I would suggest that if an independence referedum is taking place in part of a state, it suggests that part has become so detached from the state it is part of politically, that a yes vote is largely guaranteed. Independence referenda are not spur of the moment things...

Quebec fell just short of 50%. One major factor in this is that Canada is already a federation and one of the most decentralised federations in the world. In that sense, quebec already had about the greatest degree of autonomy possible without actually being a completely independent country. This made it difficult for those in support of independence to argue that there was really a lot to be gained. Still achieved effectively half the vote though. Quebec was also very culturally driven rather than politically, i.e. too much was made of the 'French' aspect, rather than more inclusive civic ideals. This made non-french speakers and aboriginals much more resistant to independence.
 
 
# derick fae Yell 2012-06-20 22:19
Off topic but watch this one. Shetland is not Scottish? But meanwhile the Lerwick faction is grinding the Nort Isles intae the dust. Tavish is absent.

What sort of Scotland do we want? What sort of Shetland?
facebook.com/.../...

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