Dear Professor Curtice, about your poll ...

Thursday, 24 January 2013 08:37

By Dave Taylor

Thanks for appearing on STV’s Scotland Tonight, to confirm what we [1] were already pretty sure of – that at the tail end of 2012, around two-thirds of people in Scotland supported the Scottish Parliament having responsibility for almost all matters (including taxation and welfare spending), and that 35% want the Scottish Parliament to have all powers, but that fewer than that number supported your 1997 questions which offered independence.

Weel, we kent that last bit!

We had already seen a number of polls published close to the date of the actual surveys, unlike the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, that told us about the likely level of a Yes vote, if the referendum was held tomorrow (which it won’t be).

The SSAS is always welcome, due to the quality of the analysis. We look forward to seeing the full report.

Academia should really conform to recognised processes like publishing the report and its associated tables first, rather than releasing embargoed press releases [2], and creating yet more opportunities for TV appearances.

Glad to hear you point out that the use of questions from pre-devolution times relevant to the 1997 referendum is academically interesting, though not useful now. Doubtless, if a realistic prospect of Westminster devolving the powers to Scotland, that most Scots wish, emerges then appropriate questions (though not these) will become relevant again.

Yours sincerely

[1] “we” in this letter is not the royal We, but a reference to myself and all three regular readers of the column.

[2] ScotCen probably should have been a little bit clearer to the Guardian, that a press release that is “embargoed” means that they shouldn’t publish details from it. Not all media outlets are as professional as NNS.

[Edit] Thanks to Barbazenzero (below) for the link to the new NatCen tables for the 2012 survey. They provide detailed confirmation that, last year, the strong preference of Scots was for greater devolution. Only 32% of Scots would worry about Scotland's future under Devo Max.

Comments

# gedguy2 2013-01-24 09:09

This survey was conducted by ESDS Government. Never heard of them. Led by the Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research. Never heard of them. CCSR is an interdisciplina ry research centre in the School of Social Sciences at the University of Manchester. I've heard of the University of Manchester.
How many of you took part in this survey? Says it all really.

# Macart 2013-01-24 09:57

There's more than three of us surely. :)

Aye its amazing what you can make numbers say at the best of times, but when politics and the media are involved? Let's just say that the Guardian's Scottish commentary lives to put numbers out there which suggest one thing yet can mean entirely another.

# Sleekit 2013-01-24 10:25

NO Macart...

Its just me, you and Gedguy.

# Macart 2013-01-24 11:39

LOL :D

Wonder how that poll would run now that the second question has been removed from the list of options and Westminster has introduced its new benefits overhaul? Also there is that small matter of Cameron's vote winner of an EU referendum.

# Diabloandco 2013-01-24 10:43

The Herald is fairly trumpetting the polls via the unbiased comentator, Mr Gardham - fantastical analysis!

I know the circulation figures are bad for the Herald and can't quite helping thinking(childi shly) " serves them right!"

I am kind of hoping the peoples of Scotland have noticed that they are not hearing from the SNP ,the Yes campaign nor any academic in favour of independence and are being fed distorted drivel with much hypocrisy thrown in for good measure.
I am putting my trust in the sensible Scots by birth or choice, to realise how ill served they are by the media of Scotland.

# FREEDOM1 2013-01-24 10:58

Just listened to call kaye about the latest poll. Blair jenkins was fantastic. He answered every question without hesitation. This man is a boon for Scottish Independence. I think him and his Team will turn it round for 2014.
Kaye was inundated by calls and texts for Independence. Again she gave up and moved on to a different subject.

# Northerndiver 2013-01-24 19:57

I couldn't agree more...Blair Jenkins is a big asset to the yes campaign. I seen the web-cast interview with Douglas Fraser, he came across very well.

# reconvene 2013-01-24 11:24

This SSAS is a big game, it’s based in England and funded by the British Social Attitudes, who are in turn funded by the British Government. So I leave it to your imagination where the info came from.

The Lassie on the end of the phone said that they don’t actually canvas attitudes themselves, but take the information from elsewhere. So I don’t believe a word of this survey.

It’s enough that they get their misinformation and lies out in print, and that any corrections will never be published.

# Leswil 2013-01-24 11:36

Has anyone got a recording of the kaye Adams phone in this morning, to post here.
As I missed it, some of the comments above make me really want to hear it!
So please!

# Alphenscot 2013-01-24 14:36

www.bbc.co.uk/.../b01prbyj

There you go.Media lies as usual I reckon.

And when its bad news for independence she jumps straight on board!!!!!!!!

# Barbazenzero 2013-01-24 11:43

PDFs of the media briefing and tables for the SSA 2012 are now available on natcen.ac.uk/.../..., the nat in NatCen being of course British, with sampling during the Union flagfest between July and November 2012.

# src19 2013-01-24 13:55

It's interesting that when the SNP where not in power that independence was popular but as soon as the SNP are in power independence is not popular.

IMHO this biased poll is try to set an agenda using psychology scaring people off independence aided by westminster supported MSM and state broadcaster.

Statistics are like a bikini - what they reveal is exciting but what they conceal is vital.

# spcarraig 2013-01-24 14:16

Does anyone when know when the next Panelbase survey is released? They ask the actual question and get a slightly different result...

# Aplinal 2013-01-24 14:39

Kall Kay(e) should be available on the BBC web site - try www.bbc.co.uk/.../b01prbyj

You should be able to pick up the last seven days' episodes online

# loveme2times 2013-01-24 15:08

Funny how Kaye was discussing the independence poll but when I click your link above apparantly they were discussing food and toys!!

24/01/2013
2013Food for thought? A brand new multi-agency campaign "Enough Food for Everyone, IF..." was launched on Wednesday to try and end hunger in the developing world forever. But with a big increase in the numbers of food banks in Britain, and a sharp decrease in the amount of disposable income, Kaye asks....Is it our job to end world hunger, or should charity begin at home?

And, the toy market is worth a cool £3billion in the UK alone, with educational toys coming top of the sales charts. Kaye also asks...Do children need educational toys in order to learn?

# Aplinal 2013-01-24 15:27

I have been listening to the show, you need to get past her general introductions. I think Blair Jenkins is on line after about 15 minutes or so. Very professional and assured. He is a class act.

# farrochie 2013-01-24 19:27

Kaye is just a sock puppet mouthing the unionist editorial line of the BBC, while the BBC can always say she's a freelance and they don't control her content. Now imagine we had a someone with strong nationalist feeling, doing the questioning, and giving the independence view. Some hope!

# Grenscot 2013-01-24 20:19

farrochie I have to disagree this time. I have just listened to the exchange on the Iplayer. Kaye basically challenged Blair Jenkins with the questions that the unionists are going to be spouting anyway. By doing so she gave him a golden opportunity to provide well developed and reasoned responses. More importantly she did not interrupt him while he was giving those responses. She also asked the pro union speaker some hard questions as well. I think I would have to concede this one as being evenly balanced.

# farrochie 2013-01-24 20:56

Grenscot, I don't disagree with your statement that she did not interrupt, unlike the session of a week or so. I think it's an advantage having a non-politician in this YES Scotland role.

# jdman 2013-01-24 22:18

off topic sorry. but watching a bbc 2 bigging up the drax power station.
Programme on bbc2, anyone got any thoughts as to why that should be?

# Mad Jock McMad 2013-01-25 00:09

As soon as I saw that Professor Curtice was involved in the survey and report I went to brain state auto-mince and disregarded it.

# Ped 2013-01-25 06:27

I must admit to having some sympathy with Prof; Curtis’s position as I can see the academic value in asking the same questions year after year to see how attitudes change over time.

HOWEVER: There does seem to be a basic problem with the questions. Some are just irrelevant to today. So, while the idea of asking the same question year after year is potentially of value, perhaps a little more thought could have gone into what questions would stand the test of time before beginning the project. I am afraid that the attitudes survey as it is, is irrelevant and really, not worth the printing. So, perhaps a good idea Prof; but having failed from the outset perhaps you could go back and rethink your experiment?

# Breeks 2013-01-25 10:00

To me, opinion polls are like going to a football match, turning your back on the game, and providing commentary on who's winning by watching faces in the crowd.

They're a blunt instrument at the best of times.

# call me dave 2013-01-25 13:00

Aye that's right just like FMQ's as reported by the BBC.

But not to worry it will all unravel as people realise, in the middle of a triple dip recession, that the life boat 'independence' will look to good not to climb on board.

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Dear Professor Curtice, about your poll ...

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