by a Newsnet reporter

An opinion poll carried out by Angus Reid for todays Sunday Express newspaper confirms other recent polls in showing that the SNP is increasing its lead over the other parties.

When don't knows and won't says are excluded, headline figures give the SNP 49% of Scottish voting intention, Labour are trailing on 23%, followed by the Conservatives on 13%.  The Lib Dems come in a poor fourth at 5%, confirming that the party is suffering the electoral effects of its coalition with the Conservative government in Westminster.

The poll is the third in the past ten days which puts SNP at 49%.  By confirming the trend apparent in the earlier polls, this new poll shows that the swing to the SNP is no statistical blip, but represents a very real change in Scottish voting intentions.

The poll also showed that 36% of Scots agreed with the statement that Scotland would become an independent state within their lifetime.  This is greater than the 32% who disagreed with the statement.

However when asked how they would vote in a single question referendum on independence, 47% said they would vote for Scotland to remain part of the UK, 36% would vote for Scotland to be independent.  13% said they did not know how they would vote.  

47% said they would choose "devo-max", including full tax-raising powers, while remaining part of the UK if that option was put forward.

The poll also revealed just how unpopular the UK national anthem has become in Scotland.  A massive majority of Scots want to get rid of "God Save the Queen" as national anthem.  Just 11% of Scots were in favour of retaining the anthem, 60% wanted it to be replaced by Flower of Scotland.

Commenting on the poll, First Minister Alex Salmond said: "This is a fantastic poll.  45% of Scottish voters backed the SNP in May and, as we deliver our ambitious programme for government, that support is rising.

"The SNP now has the support of some half the electorate, and there is growing support for Scotland having the full range of job-creating powers we need to boost jobs and recovery, and becoming an equal and independent country with access to the record tax revenues being generated by Scotland's North Sea oil and gas.

"The people of Scotland spoke in the election, and the Westminster parties all lag far behind the ambitions of the people.

"With the LibDems relegated to minor party status and leadership contests causing confusion and division, both Labour and the Tories are on the run in Scotland."

Comments  

 
# tartanpigsy 2011-09-11 02:19
Amazing news, 3 polls within a week all of which point to a new core/base level for independence ...... onwards and upwards ;-))
 
 
# Scottish republic 2011-09-11 05:10
This poll suggests we need to convince, at the moment, just over one more person in ten to vote yes to have a 50/50 chance of winning the referendum.

Then it's a case of convincing the don't knows - this is doable with a good campaign and the financial arguments set out clearly.
 
 
# Robert Louis 2011-09-11 08:01
God save the queen was not popular up here, ever. Not suprised people wan rid of it.

I noticed the England rugby team used it as the England national anthem in New Zealand.
 
 
# Holebender 2011-09-11 12:07
England Rugby team? Were those the guys who were pretending to be All Blacks yesterday? They've a bit of a nerve (nothing new) dressing up like the hosts in the hope some of the hosts' abilities will rub off on them!
 
 
# J Wil 2011-09-11 16:30
Johnny Wilkinson showed how just good he was at kicking yesterday - not! Five minutes before the game he was being hailed by the TV pundits as the best in the world. Oh how I like to see them being taken down a peg or three.
 
 
# mealer 2011-09-11 08:46
I think this poll shows that the undecideds are moving towards independence.Of the 47% who still support the union,how many are peruadeable ?
A good poll but still a huge amount of work to do.
 
 
# rolfh 2011-09-11 09:21
So many Scots now support full fiscal autonomy, for the SNP to win the referendum really just depends on how it is worded and/or what 'independence' actually means to those voting.

Many of those saying no to 'full independence' have probably only heard the Unionists' description of what this would mean (separatism, Scotland set adrift from its friends, Scotland with no defence, Scotland kicked out of the EU etc, etc).

Once the truth is known, and that it is much more a choice of independence over dependence then the number of those voting no will shrink accordingly, and many of the undecided will turn to yes.
 
 
# RaboRuglen 2011-09-11 09:45
Hi there,

Excellent poll results. Still moving in the right direction, but we must keep the heid. No more divisive comments threatening our progress. Personal hobby horses must be kept securely tethered - Bill Walker please note!

Regards,
 
 
# Mad Jock McMad 2011-09-11 09:46
What this poll says to me is:

1. The majority of Scottish voters support the way the SNP are going about their business fighting Scotland's corner
2. The inherent conservatism of the Scots is reflected in the 47% support for fiscal autonomy. Call it the 'aye been' factor of the Scottish psyche.
3. If full fiscal autonomy continues to be derided by Westminster then the conversion of this 47% to the independence cause will not be difficult, many will come across by default. Call it the 'Up you pal' factor of the Scottish psyche.

Folk will post that it is not that simple - but it is. The Independence vote will be carried from a gut instinct level with little need of sophistication or complexity.

The more the Foulke's, Murphy's, Mundell's and Moore's be little Scotland: the greater the anger they will engender. All the SNP need to do is ride the wave of growing resentment against Westminster with a steady hand on the tiller to come safe on shore.
 
 
# exel 2011-09-11 19:46
From the Newsnet reporter:
Commenting on the poll, First Minister Alex Salmond said: "This is a fantastic poll. 45% of Scottish voters backed the SNP in May and, as we deliver our ambitious programme for government, that support is rising.

What exactly was his quote? All we know for sure is 45% of those voting voted for SNP candidates, but that is about all.
 
 
# scottish_skier 2011-09-11 10:08
I think we all just need to sit back and relax. As the unionist parties continue to attack the SNP / the concept of independence, they are by default attacking Scotland. This in turn causes more Scots to turn to the SNP and look favourably on independence or FFA. As Iain MacWhirter neatly put it in his recent Hearld comment:

"If you keep telling people they can’t stand on their own two feet, eventually they’ll try to prove you wrong."

Lets hope the Unionist parties continue with their current approach. It's doing wonders for the cause.
 
 
# hiorta 2011-09-11 10:40
Westminster still plays the 'others must relate to us' game and dont seem to have realised the world has moved on.
We are our own people with our own ambitions and values. We really dont mind what others may think of that.
 
 
# Arraniki 2011-09-11 12:21
Plato's cave analogy comes to mind. People are so institutionalis ed to the known security of the cave that they become fearfully reluctant to step into the light of day, to the extent that the cave is all they know of life and living.
In essence they fear the unknown and will not leave their comfort zone.
Thus their personal development as human beings is seriously restricted.

Watch those chimps on the Yahoo video clip (Editor's choice).

uk.yahoo.com

Get my drift?
 
 
# chicmac 2011-09-11 12:38
I have not seen the question used, but if, as implied in the article, it was a choice between Independence and "Devo Max" then I am, in those circumstances, stunned at the number who still said they would choose independence. Devo Max implies full fiscal autonomy which in turn means that Scotland would get the chance to prove it would be better off independent or at least no worse off.

A lot of pro independence folk would like to see a period of that as a final stepping stone to full independence - if given the choice.

However, as indicated by the greater number expecting independence in their lifetime rather than not, it is clear that such a choice would be viewed only as a final proving step rather than a 'settled will'.

With such presumption even those strongly pro independence supporting, but with a cautious nature personally, may be inclined to vote for a 'Devo max" option if it were on offer.

And this is my main point, to interpret such a vote as 'support of the Union' would, IMO, be very wide of the mark for many, many such voters.

I cannot, either, imagine, even the Brit Electoral Commission allowing the actual phrase "Devo Max". The main details of exactly what people were voting for would need to be stated.
 
 
# neoloon 2011-09-11 14:45
Apologies if this question has been asked and answered before.
If,in a three-question referendum the result was: pro-independence 30%
devo-max 30%
pro-union 40%
Would unionists have the right,legally, to claim this result as a victory and demand the political relationship between Scotland and England stays as it is now?
 
 
# Holebender 2011-09-11 16:18
Yes. Which is why there won't be a three question referendum. There will most likely be a double referendum, as was done for devolution in 1997. In this case, the answers are not mutually exclusive and would be along the lines of...

Q.1 - Do you want to increase the powers of the Scottish Parliament?

Q.2 - Do you want independence?

Supporters of independence would vote YES YES. Supporters of Devo Max would vote YES NO. Supporters of the status quo would vote NO NO. Each question passes or fails on it's own.
 
 
# chicmac 2011-09-11 20:37
I think the pro union support would definitely be less than 20%.

How the split would go on the other two options would depend on what was promised for Devo Max and how well the resepctive campaigns went. My personal guess would be 55% for Devo Max, 30% for independence and 15% for the status quo.

Note as in previous post, any win for Devo Max would automatically come with no time scale for having another independence referendum.

Best as Holebender said is to have separate questions.

I personally would like to see a third question resolved, along the lines of:

"Should the result of this referendum settle the constitutional issue for a generation or more?"

or

"Should another constitutional referendum be held when enough experience of the new set up has been achieved?"
 
 
# neoloon 2011-09-12 10:10
Thanks for the comments.
I'm not sure the pro-union vote would be less than 20% but here's hoping!
 
 
# cjmjr 2011-09-11 14:57
Who would get to decide what Devo Max was Westminster or Scotland ? If Devo Max was voted for it could be years at Westminster being argued over and kicked into the long grass, just a thought.
 
 
# Holebender 2011-09-11 16:20
Obviously, Devo Max would have to be defined before asking anyone to vote for or against. It's one of the best reasons to just drop the whole idea and go straight to an independence yes/no single question.
 
 
# ButeHouse 2011-09-11 19:04
For older Nats like myself this is like living in a dream.

Proposals from senior Labour and Tory personnel to detach their Scottish parties from London (to some extent or another) and now polls coming out showing the SNP Government to be supported by almost half of the population.

It's quite unbelievable until you realise that the SNP has a leader who is regarded by most UK pundits and political commentators as being one of the best politicians in Europe.

At the same time the internet has empowered ordinary people all over the world, including Scotland with facts which London has kept buried for decades seeing the light of day.

All in all, the circumstances couldn't be better for Independence.
 
 
# Arbroath1320 2011-09-12 00:09
Bute, do you REALLY believe all this guff that the Tory and Labour party are REALLY going to separate themselves from Westminster?

Personally I think it is just a ploy to con the voters.
 
 
# enneffess 2011-09-11 20:23
Being the third (?) recent poll, then the indicators are clear that the SNP has maintained it's support.

On the referendum (worthy of a topic in its own right), I think there will be three questions, on the lines of:

1. Do you wish Scotland to be fully independent?

2. Do you wish Scotland to have increased powers to include all areas except defence and foreign policy?

3. Do you wish Scotland to remain with its current powers?


I think two question vote is too risky for the SNP to consider, althoufg much depends on the political and economic situation as we get nearer.
 
 
# oldnat 2011-09-11 20:45
"I think two question vote is too risky for the SNP to consider"

The ipsos-MORI poll showed that there are a small number of SNP supporters who would vote for independence, but not for DevoMax. They are massively outnumbered by those who accept the Union - but only on a DevoMax basis.

What is quite astonishing is that LDs and Labour totally abandoned the idea of significant extra powers for Holyrood, and allowed the SNP to move into the vacant political niche - without having to abandon their core principle.

If we get DevoMax, the SNP/Scotland has won (because the remnant UK is then left with Defence as their core area. They will tax us to pay for Trident and interventionist wars. How long would the UK last?)

If we vote for DevoMax, but Westminster doesn't deliver it, the SNP/Scotland has won. A subsequent independence referendum would be won hands down.

If we vote for independence, the SNP/Scotland has won.

The only possible circumstance that doesn't lead to independence is if the Scottish people say decisively that they don't want extra powers for Holyrood. That would be democratic, but rather unlikely. The world has moved on from where the Unionists imagine it to be.
 
 
# uilleam_beag 2011-09-11 21:29
Spot on, Oldnat. It is increasingly looking as though DevoMax or FFA would almost certainly be accepted by the electorate. In my opinion that would be likely to result in full independence within a decade - assuming Westminster acquiesced to such a demand.

More likely, the mere suggestion would be met with an indignant brouhaha from the south of England (whipped up by a compliant media, of course), where many folk seem still to be having difficulty coming to grips with devolution. That would result in a predictable knee-jerk reaction in Westminster, leaving Scots with the option of going for outright independence or remain in a union where their democratic voice is ignored - even more blatantly than right now.

Of course, I'd much prefer the independence referendum to pass at the first hurdle, and I'm not for a nanosecond suggesting that won't happen - just looking at potential other outcomes.
 
 
# uilleam_beag 2011-09-11 20:39
I think the most sensible suggestion I have seen for a multiple-option referendum runs roughly along the following lines:-

1. Do you want Scotland to become a fully independent state in its own right?

2. Should the electorate reject the first question, do you want Holyrood's powers to be increased to include all areas except defence and foreign policy?

The part in italics is crucial as it negates the potential for controversy if Scotland's electorate were to vote 'yes' for independence but more strongly 'yes' for full fiscal autonomy. We'd be at it for years if Whitehall bureaucrats spotted wiggle room between the two 'yes' votes!
 
 
# oldnat 2011-09-11 22:47
Actually, I'm in favour of a three-question referendum,

The first question is there to trap the Unionists.

"The sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs should be formally recognised in a Constitution." Agree/Disagree

The wording, of course, is taken from the 1988 Claim of Right that the Unionist parties signed up to.
 
 
# clootie 2011-09-14 13:23
u_b

The wording would never pass any electoral review.

The questions have to be able to stand up to rigorous review. The unionist arguement/accusation is that we will have a question such as " Do you want independence or to murder babies".

Your question is do you want it all or a lot more.
 
 
# Grenscot 2011-09-11 23:21
Anybody know what the three Union Jacks minus the Saltire being waved about in the Albert Hall on the last night of the Proms was all about?
 
 
# shackled to a corpse 2011-09-11 23:34
Didnt see it, but doesnt that make it the same (or at least very similar) to the Icelandic flag? could this be what you saw?
 
 
# Arbroath1320 2011-09-12 00:11
Shackled, perhaps three people at the Albert Hall have seen the light and accepted that Scotland is going to be Independent. :D
 
 
# BeltaneFire 2011-09-12 09:42
I noticed this too, though on closer inspection, the flag was essentially all pink.

Consequently, I suspect that it is a 'gay' union flag.

While not being homophobic, if true, I'm a little pissed that our flag, even as part of the union flag, is being messed with. It isn't exactly a display of 'respect' it deserves.
 
 
# oldnat 2011-09-12 12:03
I find it interesting that the responses of so many living south of the border (down Daily Mail way) remain still ignorant and hostile. If you have a strong stomach, have a look at the comments on this quite reasonable Spectator essay about this poll.

www.spectator.co.uk/.../.thtml

(There are, of course, some wise comments - JR Tomlin for one!)
 
 
# Lianachan 2011-09-12 12:16
Quote:
Bye bye Andy Murray! Bye bye David Tennant! Wave bye bye! Bye bye Gordon Brown and every other mean, grasping, socialist loving, English-hating, chip on the shoulder Scotsman!


An example of one of the less wise comments.
 
 
# pa_broon74 2011-09-12 12:37
I'm not surprised.

A lot of folk in England see Scotland as a region of greater England (read Britain) that and the drip feed from the media on funding and what-not.

I don't for a minute believe all or even a large minority of English people are so mean-minded to share those views on Scotland; there is however a casual sort of disdain for the idea of Scotland as a Country in and of itself and it's ability to survive on its own.

I sort of got the feeling some of those comments had an edge of fear to them though, some commentators from England (and Scotland) are becoming a bit to strident when talking about England funding Scotland, I know we're not funded but I wonder if others who doubt it are beginning to scratch theirs heads thinking perhaps the (wo)man doth protest to much?
 
 
# Robert Louis 2011-09-12 16:39
I know this will sound a 'bit out there', but I just wanted to raise this, to see what others think.

Does anybody else share my suspicion that this demonisation of the Scots, and especially Alex Salmond in England is deliberate? And more importantly for a reason?

Imagine a scenario where Scots vote for independence, or the Scottish Government decide to introduce primary legislation to take full fiscal control. Westminster would go into a flurry of hostile activity, perhaps even including trying to shut the Scottish Parliament (remember Westminster thinks such powers are theirs). If most people in England and abroad, think that Scots are scroungers, and that Alex Salmond is really quite a bad person, would it help to stifle any criticism?

Say it came to troops closing the parliament/Scottish Government buildings, do you think their would be much of an outcry or even sympathy from people in England? Or would they based upon their forced diet of negative spin over the last four years, just shrug their shoulders, and say 'well they were asking for it, troublemaking scroungers etc......'

It just strikes me, that their does seem now to be a definite and total media propaganda getting played out in England, portraying the Scots as freeloaders at English taxpayers expense, and Alex Salmond as beelzebub himself.

We know it's all a pack of lies, but how many in England know it is a pack of lies, and given the situation where English troops got used in Scotland to close the Scottish parliament, would they (people in England) feel it was right or wrong??

A bit out there, but I'd be interested to know what others think.
 
 
# pa_broon74 2011-09-12 16:55
I think alot of the demonisation is being done by the 'British Establishment' though and I would like to think there is a majority of English folk who hold it with the same level of disdain as say, you or I.

If though, the English people did believe we were upstart scroungers I think that would backfire on Westminster, if they did try to shut Holyrood down to stop Scotland leaving; many South of the border would presumably ask why and immediately smell a rat (which they probably already do.)

I would hope that troops being deployed anywhere in the UK to quell a 'domestic problem' would be roundly condemned by every one, at that point people would have to think; 'if they can do it to that parliament, what happens if we become unhappy with Westminster, they've set a precedent right there.'

I think that 'definite and total media propaganda' is just a lot of people who have benefited from the union thrashing about wildly because they know it's all either going to change drastically or come to an end.

No more big-wigging for Great Britain!
 
 
# J Wil 2011-09-13 15:43
...do you think their would be much of an outcry or even sympathy from people in England?

Perhaps it's cloud cuckoo land, but I hope that there would be an outcry from the other EU nations if such a thing happened.
 
 
# clootie 2011-09-14 12:59
It happened in 1919 in Glasgow with tanks on the street. It was to suppress the strike for a shorter working week. In reality it was to end the rising socialist standing.

I don't think this could happen again with modern communications. However I think you make a valid point in that it would be easier to justify if you "demonise the enemy"
 
 
# Arbroath1320 2011-09-12 12:53
Just thinking outside the box. (Yes I HAVE taken my wee blue pill!)

Instead of denouncing the "too wee, too poor, too stupid" and "we subsidise Scotland" statements from "down south, should we not be encouraging them to continue making such statements. All this Scottish negativity will eventually make it into the news arena and then, in my view, all hell will break loose.

Yes we do have a variety of problems up here but one thing that is not a problem is the pride we all have in our country, and most people will defend that to the hilt. The continual sniping done by our neighbours will eventually, in my view, bear fruit.... for us.

The people of Scotland can tolerate the continual put downs from England for only so long before the "worm turns". In fact I believe the worm has already started to turn, as witnessed by the recent poll results.

You can only tell people they are stupid etc for so long before they begin to stand up and revolt. Initially small in number but steadily growing. This is the point we have reached now. The number of people standing up and "revolting" is increasing on a daily basis. The problem for them down south is they can't see this. Come the full blown revolution, the Independence Referendum, they are in for one almighty shock.
 
 
# clootie 2011-09-13 13:51
I don't think we have to worry it's the only tool they have.

As Robert Louis pointed out it's very difficult for the unionists to answer the question "The union is good for Scotland because......"
 
 
# oldnat 2011-09-12 13:24
Meanwhile, while the SNP publish their updated economic strategy, including "a new Strategic Priority - Transition to a Low Carbon Economy"

scotland.gov.uk/.../12101424

The French have suffered another explosion in a nuclear plant

bbc.co.uk/.../...
 
 
# ituna semea 2011-09-13 15:47
There was no risk of a radioactive leak after the blast, caused by a fire near a furnace in the Centraco radioactive waste storage site, said officials.

The owner of the southern French plant, national electricity provider EDF, said it had been "an industrial accident, not a nuclear accident".
 
 
# Seagetagrip 2011-09-12 16:15
Off topic.
Meanwhile, over at the Beeb. Poor Brian has a comment or three but his bosses do not wish our opinions any more. How sad. It was fun while it lasted!
 
 
# lochside 2011-09-14 13:51
Robert Louis, it's not too far fetched to suggest a softening up approach is going on. Many comments I've read on msm English papers indicates that a large percentage (I don't know how large)of English people don't believe that the oil fields would belong to us, even if we were independent! So there might be a lot of people down south that would support armed intervention to prevent 'their' resources! Another point is that British Intelligence groups have a long history of Agent Provocateur behaviour both in Ireland, but more importantly in Scotland. Go back to the rise of the SNP in the '70s and 80s'and you'll find small misguided patriots being manipulated by dark forces within the Brit establishment and instances of mysterious 'bombings' of pylons etc. claimed by equally mysterious groups, aways at the height of SNP electoral success or threatened electoral breakthrough. Anybody remember 'scotch on the Rocks'? an execrable tv 'drama' written by Douglas Hurd and televised by oor very ain BBC?... Blatant Brit Propaganda, the type of which would never be allowed these days(!)
 

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