SNP top poll of Westminster polls for past six days

Saturday, 25 February 2012 21:01

By a Newsnet reporter

An analysis of the Scottish samples of UK polls over the last six days - amounting to an overall total of 822 people – has shown support for the SNP at 37%; a 17% increase since the 2010 Westminster election and a 12% swing from Labour. The results reflect voting intention in Westminster General Elections.

The analysis was based upon the Scottish subsamples of six UK polls conducted between 17th February and 23rd February. The aggregated total of the Scottish sub-samples is 822.

It is difficult to translate this polling result into seats at Westminster, as the current 59 Scottish Westminster seats are planned to be reduced to 52 for the next Westminster General Election, due in 2015.

However based upon the existing boundaries and seat numbers, and the assumption of a uniform swing, this result would see the SNP gain 14 seats, up to 20 from the current six, whereas Labour would lose seven of its 41 seats to be left with 34. The biggest casualties would be the Lib Dems, who would see their Scottish seats decimated, losing 9 out of the 11 seats they currently hold.

It should also be noted that the SNP has traditionally claimed that UK wide polls underestimate SNP support as the weighting methods employed by UK polling companies do not properly take into account the distinct political landscape of Scotland.

Commenting on the analysis the SNP's Campaign Director Angus Robertson said:

"The combined result of these polls show support is continuing to grow - with voters giving the anti-independence parties a thumbs down.

"While the UK leaders continue to offer nothing but negativity, the SNP is committed to giving the people of Scotland what they want - a positive vision of our country's future.

"With just over two months before the next local council elections, the SNP is delivering for Scotland with funding for the popular Council Tax freeze, funding to retain 1,000 extra police officers on our streets and the successful Small Business Bonus Scheme.

"And with an additional £54 million of capital funding for local government to spend on local priorities we are focussing on economic growth and job creation."

Comments

# Arbroath1320 2012-02-26 00:55

I wonder if the Labour party have seen these figures. It might explain their reluctance to do or say anything regarding recent events in Westminster.

P.S. That's a hell of a long time period isn't it?
17th of February till the 223rd of February! :D

# ButeHouse 2012-02-26 02:38

ot But SATURDAY OCTOBER 18th named as day of the Referendum in new Sun on Sunday. VOTE YES

# Hing em high 2012-02-26 00:58

May I take this opportunity to say what a fantastic job Ed Milliband and Lamont are doing. It is only matched by the brilliance of Cameron and Davidson. A brilliance perhaps only surpased by Clegg and Rennie.

As for the above polls, it clearly shows that Salmond is in deep trouble with the electorate.

Just speculating on the interpretation that will appear in the SoS!

# Arbroath1320 2012-02-26 03:15

Forget the SoS Hing em.

Here's a poll that makes for some interesting reading.

scotchpotch.com/.../...

# C2DEalba 2012-02-26 01:44

The best thing that can happen is less British Labour Party members from Scotland in Westminister the better. They get elected and forget their constituents.

# proudscot 2012-02-26 17:01

Quoting C2DEalba:

The best thing that can happen is less British Labour Party members from Scotland in Westminister the better. They get elected and forget their constituents.

Ah, but their faithful voters don't forget them, nor did their parents or grandparents, back in the days when the Labour Party actually tried to better the working conditions of the disadvantaged in British society.

The problem is, to quote Jimmy Reid, they haven't left the Labour Party, the Labour Party have left them. Their faithful and (post-election) voters haven't yet realised how much they are taken for granted and neglected by their elected red rosette troughers.

# Keef 2012-02-26 01:45

I'd venture to say that the seat gains and loses would be far greater. the people of Scotland no longer believe that Labour can "do a job" for them in Westminster and therefore see no point in retaining the links to the party at both MP and MSP level.

I'm sure my thinking will be proven at the next GE. The Scots have seen Labour and the Libs not only get into bed with the Tories, they've witnessed them being totaly subservient and make them breakfast in the morning.

# call me dave 2012-02-26 02:47

I agree with your hunch and hope that the prospective 20 seats can be nearer the 30 mark.

Of course in theory if the SNP don't get the yes vote and the electorate in Scotland are scunnered as there is no sign of 'devo-more jam max' forthcoming (surprise ;surprise).

There might well be a large vote for the SNP which could get the majority of Scottish MP's in the Westminster elections for Scotland.
This might allow us to dissolve the union another way by simply voting to end it - -and what a place to do it too.

Perhaps someone with a better grasp of the protocols could advise us accordingly.

# clootie 2012-02-26 08:51

I was hoping we wouldn't have another GE
:(

# uilleam_beag 2012-02-26 09:06

We will, but with any luck it'll be the first all-Scotland general election.

# call me dave 2012-02-26 12:00

Quoting clootie:

I was hoping we wouldn't have another GE
:(

Aye I know but 'The First Eck' must play the game plenty moves ahead and unfortunately we may still be shackled to our buddies down south for a wee while longer!

Ach!. . you are right we will win the referendum vote.
----------------------------------

PS:

Radio Scotland this morning the experts were suggesting that the new civic Scotland lobby that devo-max option will be a wonderful thing, but (wait for this) the SNP will have to define it and demolish it as they don't want it on the referendum paper as an option.

Apparently civic Scotland said it will need a unionist sponsor to promote it. The experts on the radio said and this will give 'The First Eck' some problems.

Took them a while to work that one out!

# gus1940 2012-02-26 09:32

If the Lib/Dems were to be decimated they would be left wit 9.9 seats not 2.

I would have expected Newsnet,unlike The MSM, to know the meaning of 'decimate'

# Taldor83 2012-02-26 15:06

Quoting gus1940:

If the Lib/Dems were to be decimated they would be left wit 9.9 seats not 2.

I would have expected Newsnet,unlike The MSM, to know the meaning of 'decimate'

That's the original meaning of the word, yes, but the more generally accepted meaning of the word is to destroy and not leave much behind.

I used it in a letter to a friend regarding indepedence.

Here, this link should help :)

www.thefreedictionary.com/.../

# Dundonian West 2012-02-26 15:11

O/T.Speaking of Lib.Dems.READ THIS!
TRIDENT.WMD.
snp.org/.../...

Oh dear me--"What a tangled web we weave------------"

# scottish_skier 2012-02-26 15:45

That's very conservative; too much so I'd say.

44% is more appropriate.

ICM - considered by many as the creme de la creme of polls have them on 48% average (certain to vote) for the past few months. Angus reid = 47%. The consistently lowest two, TNS and comres, are 39% for the same period.

# tartanfever 2012-02-26 15:56

Thanks SS, I was hoping you would appear.

What's your verdict on this amalgamation of polls to give us an 'overall' picture ? Does this produce anything valuable as an indicator or is it purely an exercise in maths and averages ?

# scottish_skier 2012-02-26 16:18

Obviously, we are working with subsets, usually in the 100 person range. However, these are random subsamples and if you put them all together, you have something of a proper poll sample.

I do not average alone. The reason for this are the weighing systems are different for different polls and some of these polls are more frequent than others. So, I tend to take the max and min polled within a given period and take the middle value to give a trend.

Right now that gives 39% min, 48% max. However, the average gives a little higher than the middle value and I’d give more credence to AR and ICM subsets (which give higher returns for the SNP) due to their very thorough weighting methods.

Hence my conservative 44% for the SNP. Labour at best 33% but likely lower than 30%, reflecting recent SE intention downward trends.

Given the SNP are polling ~50% for SE and the last time there was a full Scotland GE poll (not Yougov which people should stay away from unless they understand how it works) it was 42%. 44% is perfectly plausible.

May 2011 has transferred to GE intention and this appears stable. Of that I have little doubt.

# tartanfever 2012-02-26 16:40

Thanks for taking the time to explain that SS, much appreciated.

This is indeed a very encouraging trend. I've heard so many people making comments along the lines of 'the SNP are fine to run Holyrood, but not when it comes to Westmnster'

Seems that opinion is now changing.

# scottish_skier 2012-02-26 18:57

The game has changed.

Voting Labour in 2010 was a waste of time; in came the Tories. Voting Lib Dem was in the end equal to a vote for the Tories.

SNP in Holyrood with Labour in Westminster was 'ok for now' if you like. However, the fall of New Labour combined with the Lib Dem betrayal ceased to make the situation acceptable anymore.

The fact that it is now increasingly obvious that none of the unionist parties wish Holyrood to be anything more than a glorified parish council will seal the deal.

# handclapping 2012-02-26 16:11

A very disappointing piece. We are given the sample size twice but only the one figure for the SNP. If it is based on an original analysis by your reporter then they would know the importance of giving the full figures for all parties and a reference to the polls whose sub-samples have been aggregated. If using the work of others it would be nice to have the original work acknowledged and referenced so those interested could examine the evidence for themselves.

Similarly unless your reporter has created their own seat predictor, they will have used one of the "commercial" models all of which have their own characteristics e.g. there is one that gives the LibDems 1 seat even though 0% is input for them, so it would be nice to know which was used.

In terms of reporting, very poor. It looks and feels like a rehash of a political party press release, a practice deplored by many when indulged in by the BBC and the papers when the issuing party is Scottish Labour. It should also be deplored when done by Newsnet Scotland.

# G. P. Walrus 2012-02-26 18:30

We will get another UK GE if it occurs before Autumn 2014. The Coalition are committed to a 5 year "fixed term" but events happen, MPs die or step down and if the Tories feel they can win a snap election they'll drop the LibDems and go for it.

If that occurs we need 27 SNP MPs to get a majority of Scottish seats. Sounds achievable given the above.

# Ard Righ 2012-02-28 13:40

Yawn, what next?
A poll every hour on the hour on the lead up to independence, just to remind us of the unionist insecurities.

Let focus on getting an independent media first. Independent of corporations, states and mass brainwashing.

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SNP top poll of Westminster polls for past six days

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