By a Newsnet reporter
An analysis of the Scottish samples of UK polls over the last six days - amounting to an overall total of 822 people – has shown support for the SNP at 37%; a 17% increase since the 2010 Westminster election and a 12% swing from Labour. The results reflect voting intention in Westminster General Elections.
The analysis was based upon the Scottish subsamples of six UK polls conducted between 17th February and 23rd February. The aggregated total of the Scottish sub-samples is 822.
It is difficult to translate this polling result into seats at Westminster, as the current 59 Scottish Westminster seats are planned to be reduced to 52 for the next Westminster General Election, due in 2015.
However based upon the existing boundaries and seat numbers, and the assumption of a uniform swing, this result would see the SNP gain 14 seats, up to 20 from the current six, whereas Labour would lose seven of its 41 seats to be left with 34. The biggest casualties would be the Lib Dems, who would see their Scottish seats decimated, losing 9 out of the 11 seats they currently hold.
It should also be noted that the SNP has traditionally claimed that UK wide polls underestimate SNP support as the weighting methods employed by UK polling companies do not properly take into account the distinct political landscape of Scotland.
Commenting on the analysis the SNP's Campaign Director Angus Robertson said:
"The combined result of these polls show support is continuing to grow - with voters giving the anti-independence parties a thumbs down.
"While the UK leaders continue to offer nothing but negativity, the SNP is committed to giving the people of Scotland what they want - a positive vision of our country's future.
"With just over two months before the next local council elections, the SNP is delivering for Scotland with funding for the popular Council Tax freeze, funding to retain 1,000 extra police officers on our streets and the successful Small Business Bonus Scheme.
"And with an additional £54 million of capital funding for local government to spend on local priorities we are focussing on economic growth and job creation."