Monday, 30 July 2012 04:02
29 Comments
By a Newsnet reporter
Detailed analysis of the Sunday Times/Real Radio poll by Panelbase shows that the SNP is leading across all age groups, genders, socio-economic groupings and resident types in both the constituency and regional polls for the Scottish Parliament.
The poll, carried out for the Sunday Times and Real Radio Scotland, surveyed 1,012 adults in Scotland between 11th – 17th July 2012.
The overall poll puts SNP support at 47% in the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament - a 2% increase since the historic election result of 2011 with the three other parties falling back or remaining static. Labour were at 32%, the Tories 12% and the LibDems trailing badly at 6%.
The regional vote also puts the SNP up 2% since 2011 on 46% with Labour 18 points behind on 28%, the Tories on 11%, the Greens 2% ahead of the LibDems on 6%, and others on 4%.
The SNP is also ahead of its rivals in every category when the results of the poll are broken down according to socio-economic groups. The richest and poorest segments of Scottish society both show strong leads for the SNP over their nearest rivals, Labour.
The SNP's lead is particularly strong amongst the groups characterised as C2 and DE by the pollsters, comprising skilled and unskilled manual workers, and the lowest earners. These groups were traditionally regarded as forming the core of Labour's vote in Scotland.
The SNP also maintains a strong lead over its rivals when the results are broken down according to age, gender, and type of home. Such strong leads for a single party across every polling category is thought to be unprecedented.
Commenting on the poll breakdowns the SNP’s Campaigns Director Angus Robertson MP said:
"The overall result of this poll was already fantastic showing the SNP ahead of its landslide result in 2011. However to be leading across all age, gender, socio-economic and resident sectors is spectacular.
"The SNP is moving Scotland forward – delivering strong, competent Government in the face of Westminster cuts and this poll shows that people are supporting the SNP for protecting Scotland's progress.
"This poll shows people in Scotland trust the SNP and have serious doubts about the anti-independence parties.
"The more people look at the kind of country they want Scotland to be the more they realise that the status quo is holding Scotland back.
"They want a better future and it is the SNP offering that option with our commitment to free prescriptions, the implementation of a living wage, retaining police officer numbers at the highest ever levels, free higher education, enhancing childcare provision to be the best in the UK, and delivering record low waiting times.
"The Panelbase results pile more pressure on the anti-independence coalition to spell out what their vision is for Scotland’s constitutional future – the people of Scotland deserve to know what their alternative amounts to."
Comments
#
2012-07-29 20:18
It sounds good but looking at the figures still shows the long-standing antipathy to the SNP message by the female of the species. If women backed the SNP to the same extent as men then the SNP would be off to the races but where male support is 50% female is 40%.
I just hope YES support is more equal.
I just hope YES support is more equal.
#
2012-07-29 22:15
I quite agree. Just talked to a female relative, university educated, but fully-paid-up "Salmond hater", apparently like all her "ladies that lunch" friends. On the other hand she liked Jack McConnell on social grounds but I'm sure she never voted Labour.
The latest scandal is apparently how much sneeky Salmond is throwing away on this mansion in London to promote Scotland.
I wonder what can get through to these women, it is shame to leave them behind. Designing them a role in the new Scotland?
The latest scandal is apparently how much sneeky Salmond is throwing away on this mansion in London to promote Scotland.
I wonder what can get through to these women, it is shame to leave them behind. Designing them a role in the new Scotland?
#
2012-07-29 21:33
its excellent news....but we still have another 2 years to build on that.
I confess to being a Labour voter for the best part of 40 years,... it was not political idealism or the wish to live in an.."Independent " Scotland that won my vote.... but the excellent government that the SNP have shown... their willingness toprovide the kind of Leadership that no Unionist Party would dare to.. as to them preserving the Union is above all other considerations.
I believe the timing of the Referendum is as good as it can be... and good government will sway many more traditional Labour voters over that time...With the dreadful leadership that Labour now has... I believe we have good cause for optimism and look forward to the polls showing steady erosion of the Labour vote.
I confess to being a Labour voter for the best part of 40 years,... it was not political idealism or the wish to live in an.."Independent " Scotland that won my vote.... but the excellent government that the SNP have shown... their willingness toprovide the kind of Leadership that no Unionist Party would dare to.. as to them preserving the Union is above all other considerations.
I believe the timing of the Referendum is as good as it can be... and good government will sway many more traditional Labour voters over that time...With the dreadful leadership that Labour now has... I believe we have good cause for optimism and look forward to the polls showing steady erosion of the Labour vote.
#
2012-07-29 21:38
RJBH please don't take this the wrong way but as someone who never has and never would vote Labour what was your reason for voting Labour all that time?
To me Labour was all about jobs for the boys and self advancement, the poverty in the heartlands while living the high life at the expense of their core voter.
To me Labour was all about jobs for the boys and self advancement, the poverty in the heartlands while living the high life at the expense of their core voter.
#
2012-07-29 22:06
He can vote Labour if he wants as long as he votes for Independence.
The Referendum isn't a 'Party' vote.
The sooner we get that message across the happier I'll be.
The Referendum isn't a 'Party' vote.
The sooner we get that message across the happier I'll be.
#
2012-07-29 22:11
It was not a criticism so get off your high horse, it was a genuine interest in why the Labour vote holds up.
I do not vote on party lines, I disagree with some things the SNP do but they are the main route to independence.
I do not vote on party lines, I disagree with some things the SNP do but they are the main route to independence.
#
2012-07-29 22:22
Peter,
RJBH reflects my experience very closely.
I assume you are a young man and only know Labour as the party it has sadly become. It did once represent Socialist values and there was great hope in the John Smith days that these would be realised in government.
Aye, Blair conned me as he rode in on the back of this. I voted for his party more than once but now I feel sullied by being associated with what they turned out to represent. As did many, including my local MP.
There is only one credible Socialist party in the UK today and, sadly, as an English resident, I am unable to vote for them.
RJBH reflects my experience very closely.
I assume you are a young man and only know Labour as the party it has sadly become. It did once represent Socialist values and there was great hope in the John Smith days that these would be realised in government.
Aye, Blair conned me as he rode in on the back of this. I voted for his party more than once but now I feel sullied by being associated with what they turned out to represent. As did many, including my local MP.
There is only one credible Socialist party in the UK today and, sadly, as an English resident, I am unable to vote for them.
#
2012-07-29 23:00
peter ...the Labour Party was not always the corrupt rabble that they have now become... In my time going back to the 60s an 70s.. right up till the time of Tony Blair... they were the working mans party regardless of what part of the country you came from...Or at least thats how I saw it back then... NuLabour... Tony Blair Gordon Brown changed the old Labour Party irreversably in order to capture middle Englands vote....
When Tony Blair desided to wage unneccessary war .. I had enough... but thought Brown would do better... only to find I loathed him as much as I did Blair... Lucky for me then that Alex Salmond came to power in 2007.
I consider that the Labour Party is certainly not the power it once was...but the local elections showed that Labour still has far too many still prepared to vote for them regardless of how bad they have become.
It would take many more paragraphs to analyse it properly from my point of view...but its all water under the bridge now... and Im doing whatever I can now to help the SNP.
When Tony Blair desided to wage unneccessary war .. I had enough... but thought Brown would do better... only to find I loathed him as much as I did Blair... Lucky for me then that Alex Salmond came to power in 2007.
I consider that the Labour Party is certainly not the power it once was...but the local elections showed that Labour still has far too many still prepared to vote for them regardless of how bad they have become.
It would take many more paragraphs to analyse it properly from my point of view...but its all water under the bridge now... and Im doing whatever I can now to help the SNP.
#
2012-07-30 17:12
Edna and RJBH thank you for the replies, Edna you must be really old to be able to call me a young man!! lol.
Coming from a non politically motivated family and living in Aberdeenshire where Labour never have really been that prominent then yes at times I find it difficult to understand the level of support Labour has maintained, especially now as you say that they are no longer the working man/woman's party
Coming from a non politically motivated family and living in Aberdeenshire where Labour never have really been that prominent then yes at times I find it difficult to understand the level of support Labour has maintained, especially now as you say that they are no longer the working man/woman's party
#
2012-07-30 19:45
peter, I would add this from my Dad: In the shipyards and factories in the 1960's & 70's, the mob ruled. Shop stewards would tell the men if they voted SNP or YES in the '79 referendum their wives wouldn't be able to see Coronation St or Crossroads! A lot of the workforce believed all they were told by the Shop Stewards, without question.
When voting on strike-action, if you were daft enough to vote against the majority i.e. for the strike, you would get your windows panned-in as a minimum. If you were seen as "different" or a "troublemaker", you and your family would be spat on and shunned, your kids would get picked-on at school & it would continue until you moved away or you came "back to the fold".
I can just about remember some nonsense that went on before we left Renfrewshire & ended up in Aberdeenshire. Bizarrely, the oil & gas industry shows what happens when the "mob" is broken. No strikes since '79 & no industrial action whatsoever in the last 20-plus years, apart from divers, who settled for a 50% pay increase. Compare that to the recent Unite ballot for industrial action in the catering trades offshore: a 3% pay "increase" offer was accepted.
When voting on strike-action, if you were daft enough to vote against the majority i.e. for the strike, you would get your windows panned-in as a minimum. If you were seen as "different" or a "troublemaker", you and your family would be spat on and shunned, your kids would get picked-on at school & it would continue until you moved away or you came "back to the fold".
I can just about remember some nonsense that went on before we left Renfrewshire & ended up in Aberdeenshire. Bizarrely, the oil & gas industry shows what happens when the "mob" is broken. No strikes since '79 & no industrial action whatsoever in the last 20-plus years, apart from divers, who settled for a 50% pay increase. Compare that to the recent Unite ballot for industrial action in the catering trades offshore: a 3% pay "increase" offer was accepted.
#
2012-07-30 21:21
My only experience of that was when we were involved in an industrial dispute, when I was a union member and this fat union big wig came up from Glasgow to give us a pep talk and all he did was stat how much he hated Thatcher. Most Scot's hated her but for him to try to use our local dispute to further his grievances was not acceptable.
Then the more I got into the idea of independence the more I resented the crap spouted in the quarterly union magazine I got. It was then that I cut all ties with the union and have never regretted it even for a second.
Labour need to change in Scotland or face oblivion.
Then the more I got into the idea of independence the more I resented the crap spouted in the quarterly union magazine I got. It was then that I cut all ties with the union and have never regretted it even for a second.
Labour need to change in Scotland or face oblivion.
#
2012-07-29 22:34
Values and principals remain constant - They were once represented by a party named Labour. This is no longer the case but good people still seek to remind their party of it's past.
Don't assume Labour party members share the "official" party line. They still have good people trying to re-align the current leadership.
I don't hold out much hope for them in achieving a recovery but I admire their loyalty.
Don't assume Labour party members share the "official" party line. They still have good people trying to re-align the current leadership.
I don't hold out much hope for them in achieving a recovery but I admire their loyalty.
#
2012-07-29 22:51
Extremely encouraging news. Whereas it was obvious to anyone who cared to look that the SNP Government was not only trying very hard for Scotland and her peoples it was succeeding too.
Although sure that some sections of the public would get this I felt others might be swayed by the anti SNP, anti Independence rhetoric.
Happily this does not appear to be the case. Role on the Referendum.
VOTE YES in 2014
Although sure that some sections of the public would get this I felt others might be swayed by the anti SNP, anti Independence rhetoric.
Happily this does not appear to be the case. Role on the Referendum.
VOTE YES in 2014
#
2012-07-30 00:37
This poll shows the MSM propaganda messages and the BBC's efforts to push the Union line are failing to take a grip and the slope is getting steeper and slippier.
As to the disproportionat e gender issue, perhaps the pollsters should target 1,012 Scots women about their view of what the SNP have given them for safety, health, housing, education and social care.
Let them try asking purely female related questions and see if they would still prefer Westminster rule.
As to the disproportionat e gender issue, perhaps the pollsters should target 1,012 Scots women about their view of what the SNP have given them for safety, health, housing, education and social care.
Let them try asking purely female related questions and see if they would still prefer Westminster rule.
#
2012-07-30 02:53
Just read something interesting in the Scotsman (I know the two things are rare - interesting and Scotsman) But its about Labour dismissing a rebellion in its ranks, which is about Labour party member Allan Grogan launching 'Labour for Independence' Anyone know about this?
scotsman.com/.../...
Is this the start of the inroads into Labour and the beginning, the end and rebirth of Labour in an Independent Scotland?
facebook.com/.../...
and
www.facebook.com/.../
scotsman.com/.../...
Is this the start of the inroads into Labour and the beginning, the end and rebirth of Labour in an Independent Scotland?
facebook.com/.../...
and
www.facebook.com/.../
#
2012-07-30 08:17
Old Smokey
If you click on the link to the left of this article - March and Rally 22nd. September you will see that Allan Grogan is one of the speakers.
I hope all will promote this march and rally in Edinburgh.
If you click on the link to the left of this article - March and Rally 22nd. September you will see that Allan Grogan is one of the speakers.
I hope all will promote this march and rally in Edinburgh.
#
2012-07-30 07:06
Quoting Old Smokey:
Quoting Marga B:
Quoting Marga B:
Quoting Marga B:
It surprises me that well-educated people, whether male or female, would allow their dislike of a particular politician, Alex Salmond in this case, to influence their beliefs regarding independence for Scotland. Its quite possible to be a "Salmond-hater" yet still believe that independence is the best way forward. Its certainly clear to me, a university-educated female in my late 60s. However, my perspective has been honed by many years spent in a prosperous oil-producing country in full control of its wealth and economy - yes, a former colony.
Just read something interesting in the Scotsman (I know the two things are rare - interesting and Scotsman) But its about Labour dismissing a rebellion in its ranks, which is about Labour party member Allan Grogan launching 'Labour for Independence' Anyone know about this?
scotsman.com/.../...
Is this the start of the inroads into Labour and the beginning, the end and rebirth of Labour in an Independent Scotland?
facebook.com/.../...
and
www.facebook.com/.../
Quoting Marga B:
I quite agree. Just talked to a female relative, university educated, but fully-paid-up "Salmond hater", apparently like all her "ladies that lunch" friends. On the other hand she liked Jack McConnell on social grounds but I'm sure she never voted Labour.
The latest scandal is apparently how much sneeky Salmond is throwing away on this mansion in London to promote Scotland.
I wonder what can get through to these women, it is shame to leave them behind. Designing them a role in the new Scotland?
Quoting Marga B:
I quite agree. Just talked to a female relative, university educated, but fully-paid-up "Salmond hater", apparently like all her "ladies that lunch" friends. On the other hand she liked Jack McConnell on social grounds but I'm sure she never voted Labour.
The latest scandal is apparently how much sneeky Salmond is throwing away on this mansion in London to promote Scotland.
I wonder what can get through to these women, it is shame to leave them behind. Designing them a role in the new Scotland?
Quoting Marga B:
I quite agree. Just talked to a female relative, university educated, but fully-paid-up "Salmond hater", apparently like all her "ladies that lunch" friends. On the other hand she liked Jack McConnell on social grounds but I'm sure she never voted Labour.
The latest scandal is apparently how much sneeky Salmond is throwing away on this mansion in London to promote Scotland.
I wonder what can get through to these women, it is shame to leave them behind. Designing them a role in the new Scotland?
It surprises me that well-educated people, whether male or female, would allow their dislike of a particular politician, Alex Salmond in this case, to influence their beliefs regarding independence for Scotland. Its quite possible to be a "Salmond-hater" yet still believe that independence is the best way forward. Its certainly clear to me, a university-educated female in my late 60s. However, my perspective has been honed by many years spent in a prosperous oil-producing country in full control of its wealth and economy - yes, a former colony.
#
2012-07-30 07:27
It surprises me that university educated individuals of any gender would allow a dislike of Alex Salmond to influence their beliefs regarding independence for Scotland. If the "ladies who lunch" do not favour independence I suspect its because they do not have confidence in an independent Scotland and Alex Salmond is a convenient scapegoat. As a unversity educated female Scot in my 60s I do have confidence in an independent Scotland and will be voting Yes. However, my perspective is honed by many years spent in a prosperous oil-producing country in full control of its resources and economy - yes, a former colony. How to convince them? Send them abroad to see how other countries thrive? Not practical, I know but perhaps a concept to build on.
#
2012-07-30 07:46
THis is barely connected, but I am really happy at how the Independence vote in polls is standing firm at around 33-36%..this is awesome given that this is the Golden Jubilee and the London Olympics all great Britfests.
I think the wisdom of the SNP in waiting until 2014 is clear now..if we can muster 33% now in what must be the lowest ebb..the tide will surely carry us to a YES vote in 2014
I think the wisdom of the SNP in waiting until 2014 is clear now..if we can muster 33% now in what must be the lowest ebb..the tide will surely carry us to a YES vote in 2014
#
2012-07-30 12:30
I'm an Independence supporter but I have to say it didn't take much wisdom to wait until 2014 before having the Referendum what with all the Great Britfests you mention taking place this year.
Three little flies in my ointment are that:-
a) The Commonwealth Games might become a shambles like the Olympic Games. AS and the SG will have to take great care to keep their eye on that ball.
b) That the coalition might fail and be driven into an early UK election which could upset the Referendum timetable or even the whole applecart. And:-
c) The SNP is making a fair number of little faux pas now, none of them in themselves of much import, but taken together allowing the No-men and the media to spout ill-informed anti comment. SNP members need to be careful about what they say in public.
Three little flies in my ointment are that:-
a) The Commonwealth Games might become a shambles like the Olympic Games. AS and the SG will have to take great care to keep their eye on that ball.
b) That the coalition might fail and be driven into an early UK election which could upset the Referendum timetable or even the whole applecart. And:-
c) The SNP is making a fair number of little faux pas now, none of them in themselves of much import, but taken together allowing the No-men and the media to spout ill-informed anti comment. SNP members need to be careful about what they say in public.
#
2012-08-01 12:36
Hi Jamieson
a) I completely agree - in my response to the referendum consultation I said I thought the referendum should be held in the spring of 2014 to avoid politicisation of the Commonwealth Games (it is too big a target for the no campaign to resist). It will be only too easy for even small events to be blown up out of proportion, and even for the media to go looking for complaints e.g from athletes about facilities etc.
b) Quite - and therefore why the SNPs' persistence in talking about the threat of a Tory Government is like shooting yourself in the foot - does that mean that if we get a Labour UK government there will be no point in becoming independent?
c) Hence the reason why I have advocated elsewhere that the referendum debate should be, as much as possible, independent of political parties - now it's out there it's our referendum. One of our the problems will be getting the media to recognise that fact - it is their default mode to get comments from politicians, organise debates dominated by politicians etc.
a) I completely agree - in my response to the referendum consultation I said I thought the referendum should be held in the spring of 2014 to avoid politicisation of the Commonwealth Games (it is too big a target for the no campaign to resist). It will be only too easy for even small events to be blown up out of proportion, and even for the media to go looking for complaints e.g from athletes about facilities etc.
b) Quite - and therefore why the SNPs' persistence in talking about the threat of a Tory Government is like shooting yourself in the foot - does that mean that if we get a Labour UK government there will be no point in becoming independent?
c) Hence the reason why I have advocated elsewhere that the referendum debate should be, as much as possible, independent of political parties - now it's out there it's our referendum. One of our the problems will be getting the media to recognise that fact - it is their default mode to get comments from politicians, organise debates dominated by politicians etc.
#
2012-07-30 17:37
margab - is this sneering attitutude towards women based on just one conversation? would it not be better to listen to as many women as possible - uni-educ or not - before "designing a new role"?
#
2012-07-31 11:49
O/T .. XLNT NEWS!
BiFab win new contract and double their workforce!
Beaker and Mickey Mooth must be furious, so much for doubts about investing in Scotland!
scotsman.com/.../...
BiFab win new contract and double their workforce!
Beaker and Mickey Mooth must be furious, so much for doubts about investing in Scotland!
scotsman.com/.../...
#
2012-07-31 23:40
Interesting. Is this the same poll that the Curtice fellow was claiming that it showed a drop in support for independence?
#
2012-08-01 00:11
No. Tomorrow's poll in the Scotsman is a different one. We need to see which company ran it, whether the question(s) were commissioned by a particular group, or a repetition of a previously asked question.
Also, we need to see whether the detailed tables support the interpretation put on it by Curtice and the Scotsman.
Also, we need to see whether the detailed tables support the interpretation put on it by Curtice and the Scotsman.
#
2012-08-01 01:01
This new poll in the Scotsman has been commissioned by the Fabian Society (London based, Left Wing group of Labour thinkers)
The poll has been carried out by You Gov, these are normally carried out by telephone and are never as accurate in Scotland as some other polls.
Lets await Scottish Skiers as always excellent analysis.
scotsman.com/.../...
The poll has been carried out by You Gov, these are normally carried out by telephone and are never as accurate in Scotland as some other polls.
Lets await Scottish Skiers as always excellent analysis.
scotsman.com/.../...
#
2012-08-01 08:12
Yougov is not really worth paying attention to. The numbers this time look just like every other poll they have run in the past 3 years.
If you want a poll to say 'No' to independence, ask yougov. I suspect every poll commissioned by the unionist campaign from now to 2014 will be from yougov. That will be to the yes campaign's advantage.
Also, until the devo max issue is dealt with, there is not a lot we can take from any straight Y/N poll.
If you want a poll to say 'No' to independence, ask yougov. I suspect every poll commissioned by the unionist campaign from now to 2014 will be from yougov. That will be to the yes campaign's advantage.
Also, until the devo max issue is dealt with, there is not a lot we can take from any straight Y/N poll.
#
2012-08-02 12:15
Yes, just visited home (Dundee) and stayed at my sisters, DESPITE being a long time SNP voter because she does not like Alex Salmond she isn't a 'Yes' supporter!
Can anyone explain the logic of that to me?
Can anyone explain the logic of that to me?
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