Conference boost as new poll shows SNP leading Labour

Saturday, 10 March 2012 08:45

By a Newsnet reporter

The Scottish National Party has today welcomed a new opinion poll published by Angus Reid, in which the breakdown for Scotland has put the party on 47% in voting intentions for Westminster, a full 13 points ahead of the Labour party.

The survey also shows all three UK leaders unpopular in Scotland with David Cameron rejected by over three quarters of Scots.

The figures, taken from a sub sample of 185 respondents, comes on the first day of the SNP’s Spring Conference in Glasgow.

SNP Campaign Director Angus Robertson welcomed the results and claimed it showed the party’s support was holding firm since last year’s Holyrood election:

“We go into this year’s conference in upbeat mood as party members from across Scotland gather in Glasgow – making it our biggest ever Spring Conference.” he said.

Mr Robertson highlighted the party’s growing membership numbers and added:

“We also gather as our party membership continues to rise – with nearly 2,400 new members since the New Year – a 12 per cent increase.

“Last year in Glasgow we were preparing for what became a historic result in May with the election of the first ever majority SNP Government.

“We won last year’s elections, we are working hard to win this year’s local government elections for the people of Scotland and we are working to win the referendum for Scotland’s future.

“And yet again all three UK leaders – Miliband, Cameron and Clegg – score negative ratings in Scotland.

“While they continue to offer nothing but negativity, the SNP is committed to giving the people of Scotland what they want – a positive vision of our country’s future.

According to the pollster, over three-in-four Scots (77%) – hold unfavourable views on the Conservative Prime Minister. Mr Cameron’s approval rating across the UK as a whole was 36%, with Labour leader Ed Miliband continuing to struggle on 29%.

The Scottish sub sample of 185 people should be treated with caution and has an increased margin of error over the accepted minimum participant numbers of around 1000. However the size of the SNP lead, at 13% for a Westminster election, is significant enough to cause concern for Scottish Labour as the parties gear up for the local elections this May.

The results of the Scottish element of the poll will also cause major concern for Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie whose party have now slipped to just 5%, lower than for ‘others’.

The results of the Angus Reid poll breakdown for Scotland was as follows:

SNP: 47%
Labour: 34%
Tory: 8%
LibDem: 5%
Other: 6%

The poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion was conducted an online survey among 2,018 adults (185 in Scotland) from March 6 to March 7, 2012.

Details of the survey can be downloaded from here: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44432/labour-gains-in-britain-as-disapproval-for-cameron-and-clegg-rises/

Comments

#
amfraeembro
2012-03-10 12:17

BBC Scotland’s Brian Taylor interviewing SNP Depute leader Nicola Sturgeon: bbc.co.uk/…/…
“This content doesn’t seem to be working”
How odd

#
Dundonian West
2012-03-10 13:47

Quoting amfraeembro:

BBC Scotland’s Brian Taylor interviewing SNP Depute leader Nicola Sturgeon: bbc.co.uk/…/…
“This content doesn’t seem to be working”
How odd

NICOLA LINK working if you enter BBC via

bbc.co.uk/…/…

#
1314mln
2012-03-10 15:56

Expose the BBC bias here: facebook.com/…/…

#
RTP
2012-03-10 12:19

bbc.co.uk/…/…

As I have said on another post this is not working so is the BBC at it nothing showing on there site as well.

#
igster999
2012-03-10 13:24

Quoting RTP:

bbc.co.uk/…/…

As I have said on another post this is not working so is the BBC at it nothing showing on there site as well.

I have just watched this by going in through the BBC website rather than using the link, which admittedly does not work, so it can be accessed thru News-Scotland-Scotland politics.

#
Jimbo
2012-03-10 16:27

Just watched it here, RTP.

bbc.co.uk/…/…

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 12:46

Only good news to report about the SNP.

EBC…does not compute…..does not compute….does not compute!

#
Macart
2012-03-10 13:24

OK Arb ye got me. Ah’ve just signed up. 🙂

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 13:34

Congratulations ! 😀 (No this has nothing to do with Sir Cliff:))

Welcome to the only family in town! 🙂

#
Macart
2012-03-10 13:39

Maybe a bit late in life, when pushin’ the big five ‘0’, but the last couple of weeks especially have convinced me of the difference between the unionist parties negativity (we’re all sinking together) and the SNPs vision for a positive future. Positivity always wins it fer me.

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 13:46

Quote:

Maybe a bit late in life, when pushin’ the big five ‘0’,

Welcome to that family as well Macart. 😀

#
Legerwood
2012-03-10 13:48

Quote:

Macart 2012-03-10 12:39
Maybe a bit late in life, when pushin’ the big five ‘0’,

Sixty is the new middle-age. you are but a stripling yet.

#
Macart
2012-03-10 14:02

Ah’m a late developer, took me 49 years tae form an opinion. 😉

#
west_lothian_questioner
2012-03-10 14:22

Quoting Legerwood:

Sixty is the new middle-age. you are but a stripling yet.

Brilliant!! I’m young again…. thanks Legerwood. 🙂

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 14:25

Quote:

Sixty is the new middle-age. you are but a stripling yet.

I’m just out of nappies then! 😀

#
Teri
2012-03-10 14:42

You’re a young thing still, Macart. I was 62 when I joined!!

#
Macart
2012-03-10 14:57

Heh! Thanks all. Time tae get the kettle on, the funs about to start on conference telly.

#
uilleam_beag
2012-03-10 19:42

Grand, Macart. Welcome tae the fold. It’s never too late to say, “Aye, we can.”

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 19:44

uilleam, in Macart’s case I think it is now:

“Aye I Did!” 😀

#
megsmaw
2012-03-10 17:05

That’s me got my card through, I just missed the bathgate agm though. och!

Pleased to say my dad has also signed up!

#
Caadfael
2012-03-10 12:57

I said this would happen!
Any foreign feeds .. Al Jezeerah, Russia today etc?
Do we have figures for numbers attending?
Live feed here!
snp.org/…/…

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 13:37

I don’t know about the numbers Caadfael, I just hope they have enough overflow halls! 😀

#
Soixante-neuf
2012-03-10 20:02

Be fair, some of us went out campaigning for the local elections instead….

#
curley bill
2012-03-10 21:12

They needed FOUR overflow halls for the Boss’s speech!

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 21:22

Somebody slipped up there I think. They needed FIVE in Inverness from what I recall. 😀

#
edinburgh quine
2012-03-10 22:25

Maybe the overflow halls were bigger. Certainly at Inverness, that actual main auditorium was ok but even in normal debates, it was standing room only most of the time.

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 22:32

I think it shows the difference between Labour and the SNP.

It looks like they have to drag people screaming in off the streets to fill their conferences.

The SNP are turning people away, just for safety reasons you understand. 😀

#
hiorta
2012-03-10 13:15

It looks as though the political positioning after the Municipal Elections will show a new Scotland with all its detractors, including BBC and other wannabe malign influences, relegated to nonentity status.

However, it is not won yet.

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 13:41

I’ve just had a wee thought.

As every one will remember, when “Call me Dave” made his recent visit to Bute House he sat at the table opposite A.S. Nothing odd there you would think, but the point is he had to look a the new and improved map of Scotland that was hanging on the wall behind A.S.

Now. When the SNP win BIG in May do you think we will have two maps on the wall behind A.S. for his future meetings, the current one and a new map showing the new and improved Scottish council redistribution as well.:D

#
ScotFree1320
2012-03-10 15:12

Check out the map at www.scotlandvotes.com/…/ after keying in these figures.

Beware… you’ll need sunglasses! 🙂

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 15:21

WOW! 😀

You are certainly right.

Make sure your sunglasses are very, very, very DARK! 😀

#
Exile
2012-03-11 20:04

Arbroath and ScotFree: are you two related by any chance, as you both have the same surname?

#
Soixante-neuf
2012-03-10 20:25

Something wrong with their calculator. Even if you give the LibDems NO VOTES AT ALL, they still keep the Northern Isles!

#
Wee-Scamp
2012-03-10 13:16

Sadly the live stream from the conference doesn’t appear to be working.

#
DavieB
2012-03-10 13:17

Have tweeted John Finnie to ask whats wrong.Got a reply saying he doesnt know whats up, but hopes we can see it soon.

#
cynicalHighlander
2012-03-10 13:36

Working fine they have just gone for lunch break.

#
UpSpake
2012-03-10 13:27

My parents voted SNP all their lives when the SNP were nothing more than a rump. Since returning to Scotland permanently, I have voted SNP. A great many of my friends have voted SNP also. Neither my parents or anyone they knew, myself and anyone I know and indeed anyone they know too has ever been polled. So, a vast array of voters who vote SNP but are never counted, other than at election.
So, please tell me how accurate these polls can be ?. In my lifetime I must have heard of literally 100’s nay 1000’s of polls, none of them ever polling anyone I know.
Is there a list of people who the polsters time after time approach and is this a very small list. It has to be as Scotland is a very small population so someone must know someone who has been polled, at least once in their life ?.

#
creag an tuirc
2012-03-10 13:47

UpSpake, same thing from me with family, friends and never been polled. So in coclusion, polls are mostly made up or weighted 🙂

#
scottish_skier
2012-03-10 16:50

AR are a reliable polster. ICM is considered the best. For UK subsets, these are the best for getting info on Scottish Westminster intention as their weighting system is less heavily influenced by what you voted for last time. The latter problem is why Labour come in too high in e.g. Yougov; the methodology was not desgined to handle what has happened – an ‘anyone but the tories vote’ which people have suddenly given up on and shifted to the SNP.

I have been polled by IPSOS-MORI and for Scottish election intentions they are good. They also have the SNP up at close to 50% for Holyrood intention and presumably this will apply for council elections too.

People in England vote for the party the wish for westminster. This is not the case for Scotland; scots vote for anyone but the tories. Ergo, ‘English’ weighting methods cause innaccuracy. AR don’t do this.

#
Dundonian West
2012-03-10 13:39

TIP.Try changing the fuse–15amp

#
Mark
2012-03-10 13:45

The live stream from the conference doesn’t appear to be working on the BBC or the SNP site.

#
Legerwood
2012-03-10 13:50

Out to lunch??

#
Dundonian West
2012-03-10 13:55

Quoting Legerwood:

Out to lunch??

Seems so.
www.snp.org/
Get a live stream above.
Lunch.
Cheers!

#
Caadfael
2012-03-10 14:20

O/T
Whilst the lunch break is on.
I’ve been banging on for a long time now about Tidal Turbines, particularly with reference to Montrose Basin and the River Tay and discovered this –
thecrownestate.co.uk/…/…
Lo and behold, I wonder how long thats been the case!
What are they going to steal next .. Loch Spelve on S.E.Mull or the River Tay estuary?

#
Marga B
2012-03-10 22:31

“Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters”, “Scottish Waters” but mostly no attribution – what’s going on?

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 14:56

Can’t find any international coverage of the SNP conference other than this from Iranian PRESS TV.

www.presstv.ir/…/230930.html

#
alicmurray
2012-03-10 14:59

Conference on BBC2 at 2 – 4pm.

#
Dundonian West
2012-03-10 15:00

Quoting alicmurray:

Conference on BBC2 at 2 – 4pm.

THANKS. BBC–Oh dear.
Thanks anyway.
Hope the Gremlins don’t return!

#
Dundonian West
2012-03-10 15:06

JOIN.Hi folks.Join the SNP during the Lunch Break.
The SNP Conference Live stream (on snp site) must cost an arm and a leg.
However,it does make us independent of the BBC and it’s Gremlins(?).

my.snp.org/join

No one has put me up to this—but it does make sense to govern ourselves.
Everyone else does.
Are we the only country that cannae do it?
Course not.

Cheers,and all the Best.

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 15:11

For those who can’t quite bring themselves to watch the Blubber and co on EBC the webcast appears to be up and running OK.

facebook.com/…/…

#
Dundonian West
2012-03-10 15:13

Quoting Arbroath1320:

For those who can’t quite bring themselves to watch the Blubber and co on EBC the webcast appears to be up and running OK.

facebook.com/…/…

WEBCAST running.Thanks Arbroath1320.

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 15:16

Just heard “oor wee Nic” giving her welcome speech at the conference this morning.

Don’t you just love her! and I quote:

“I predict there will be no empty seats at our Leader’s speech this afternoon!”

Does this constitute as “putting the boot in” by any chance? 😀

Oh dear, Flubber interviewing 4 SNP “activists” and he is not getting the answers he wants. Boy he doesn’t like getting the SNP answers as opposed to the answers that he wants. Typical AIB in action!

#
McGillicuddy Dreams
2012-03-10 15:35

The country of Scotland got to hear ***** counter the 4 SNP activists statements , that the anti-independence parties are creating obfuscation with their commissions for this that and the next thing, as though he were their spokesperson.
Abusive comment removed – NNS Mod Team

Who is he again, har har.

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 15:45

A.S. on stage at 15:00 today.

Wonder how much of his opening remarks we’ll miss courtesy of the EBC.

“oor wee Nic” is on stage at 15:00 tomorrow.

I see the ****** in the studio is currently interviewing Angus Robertson. As is usual for this eedjit he is trying to put answers into Angus’s mouth. As per normal Angus shot him down in flames!
YEE HA! 😀

Abusive comment removed – NNS Mod Team

#
jurist
2012-03-10 16:16

Been very impressed with Angus Robertson of late. A future Prime Minister of Scotland in the making.

#
Suomi
2012-03-10 15:50

Having just watched Nicolas Sturgeon being interviewed by Brian Taylor,my impression was that she gave an excellent response to all of the question s.Brian was reasonably neutral although sometimes I felt that he was notlistening to the answers he recieved.However,the questions on currency,bankin g,defence and the social relationship are questions that need to be dealt with.I think that Nicola made a good start on dealing with those issues.

#
Wee-Scamp
2012-03-10 16:01

webcast still not working…..

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 16:05

Oh dear, it looks like the SNP are slipping!

They only have FOUR overspill rooms, no doubt full to bursting point, just like the main hall! 😀

#
scottish_skier
2012-03-10 16:37

This is what we want to see. ICM and AR are very high quality polsters with very detailed sampling/weighting methodology. ICM is generally considered the most accurate with AR not far behind. They have both been showing the SNP well in front since last summer with no sign of this changing. Last months ICM Scotland subset (UKGE intention):

SNP 49%
Lab 31%
Con 13%
Lib 3%

Hence we will not be seeing a by-election in Falkirk.

#
Alathia
2012-03-10 16:52

Just put those figures into the link Scotfree supplied above.

Oh if wishes were fishes, we’d all cast nets….

#
Soixante-neuf
2012-03-10 20:28

Sometimes it all comes true – and more!

wingsland.podgamer.com/…/

#
curley bill
2012-03-10 23:45

Quoting Alathia:

Just put those figures into the link Scotfree supplied above.

Oh if wishes were fishes, we’d all cast nets….

Gurney Hallek, if I recall.

#
J Wil
2012-03-10 17:01

I hope the poll reflects the view that SNP MPs get the raw end of the deal in the Commons, on the Westminster Select Committees and in Scottish Questions (headed by Michael Moore). Even although they are elected representatives of the people of Scotland, they are treated like pariahs. A perceived boost for SNP support might alter that situation.

#
gus1940
2012-03-11 09:19

I see that the nice little gentleman Mr Roy who allegedly ‘won’ the Glenrothes By-Election managed to get yet another question at last week’s PMQ’s.

That is about the 6th. question he has been able to ask in the last year or so.

Given that there are about 650 MP’s and that allowing for all the recesses and holidays there can’t be more than 35 PMQ sessions in a year how does he manage to get the opportunity to ask so many questions? With the above figures one would expect members to get 1 question every 2 years – perhaps a bit more if Government Ministers are excluded.

Can anybody tell me what is the mechanism for the selection of questioners at PMQ’s?

#
J Wil
2012-03-11 10:44

I expect that the number of questions are related to the number of MPs from each party, but, as far as Scottish Questions are concerned there should be much more weighting applied to questions from the representatives of the governing party in Scotland.

There must exist a distortion in the parliamentary rules, as, we are told, there was never any expectation that a single party would be elected in Scotland none the less the SNP, so there would have been no perceived need to have a fair system of questions at Scottish Questions when the rules were concocted.

#
Hing em high
2012-03-10 17:07

A poll ignored by *********Curtic e today as BBC went into attack dog mode!

I thought the 4 individuals that Taylor tried to badger and bully today handled themsleves well and he looked red faced at the end of it!

Abusive comment removed – NNS Mod Team

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 17:32

Nice to see good old EBC were up to their gutter reporting during their programme covering the SNP conference.

I’ve lost count of the number of times all the “reporters” tried to get someone from the SNP to admit that they want Devo “something” rather than Independence.

What part of “SNP want INDEPENDENCE!” do these numbskulls not understand?

Why is it so difficult for the numbskulls at the EBC to understand that INDEPENDENCE means INDEPENDENCE!

How shocked and amazed were the “reporters” that A.S. did not talk a great deal about the referendum?

HELLO numbskulls! there are local council elections coming up in May. Why on earth would anyone expect A.S. to be discussing, in depth, the referendum? The referendum will not take place until 2014 GET OVER IT!

#
Old Smokey
2012-03-10 18:11

Ok, I’m about to become mr unpopular
First I think the increas in support is great. I did put the figures into the Scotland Votes site www.scotlandvotes.com/…/ and just about fell of my seat.
However, it important to note that the sampling from Scotland was only 185, which is unrealistic. I get fed up with polling organisations who simply tack on a handful of Scot’s as a polling sample.
What I would rather see is a polling sample of at least 1000+ AND to get the results shown above, then I start ordering in the bubbly!

BUT I should add that despite the small polling sample, with the ever increasing membership levels of the SNP as well as the over riding popularity of the SNP, then would actually expect that the polling figures stated would firm out on election day

#
Soixante-neuf
2012-03-10 20:32

Well, if AR has the SNP at 47% in its Scottish subset, and ICM has it at 49% ditto, how low do you think it REALLY is?

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 20:38

How does 48% sound? 😀

#
scottish_skier
2012-03-10 21:12

The very lowest possible would be 40% based on all other poll subsets.

44-45% would be the conservative, median value.

May 2011 election result has transferred to UK GE intention; this has been the case in polls since last summer.

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 18:19

I wouldn’t say you were Mr. unpopular O.S.

You’re just pointing out the bleedin’ obvious! 😀

Despite there being a Scottish government back in Edinburgh now since 1999 the polling organisations still haven’t got to grips with this concept!

It does make for some very annoyed individuals. However, as the election night figures come to bear fruit it just makes our victories all the sweeter.

#
Old Smokey
2012-03-10 18:39

Very True 😀

#
Robabody
2012-03-10 19:48

Quoting Arbroath1320:

Despite there being a Scottish government back in Edinburgh now since 1999 the polling organisations still haven’t got to grips with this concept!

And not only the polling orgs Ab as we well know – there are other Ostrich’s standing around with their derriere’s exposed.

#
Displaced Patriot
2012-03-10 20:30

May 3rd will give us a real poll that is better than any weighted sub sample

#
Arbroath1320
2012-03-10 20:37

Of course you are right D.P. and I believe there is going to be one hell of a lot of disappointed AIB members come May 4th! 🙂

#
Begbie
2012-03-10 21:45

UpSpake
Have a look at these polls
Think it says it all really as to how reliable many of these polls are
Come may i think the AIB will be needing a shoulder to cry on while sadly waving their wee union flags

scotlandvotes.com/…/…

#
Big Eye
2012-03-10 23:36

What a delightful experience for camaramen the SNP conference must have been. At all the other party conferences they were restricted to cropped shots to disguise the pathetic attendences but at the SNP conference it was wide angled lenses all the way!

#
curley bill
2012-03-10 23:49

And I know it’s sexist, but surely the SNP has the bonniest female members.
(And just to even it up it has the most handsome and strapping males – well, maybe not me…)

#
D_A_N
2012-03-11 00:35

aye. were a couple of indy cuties out today! 🙂

#
Angus
2012-03-11 21:45

Quoting Big Eye:

What a delightful experience for camaramen the SNP conference must have been. At all the other party conferences they were restricted to cropped shots to disguise the pathetic attendences but at the SNP conference it was wide angled lenses all the way!

Aye, Labour were bussing in members from the North of England, to have an audience!

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Conference boost as new poll shows SNP leading Labour

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