By a Newsnet reporter

The SNP have released more details of the Panelbase Poll that they recently commissioned which showed support in the referendum for ‘Yes’ a point ahead of that for ‘No’. The new results show that this lead becomes greater when people are asked to take into account which party might form the government at Westminster in 2015

The headline figures put support for a Yes vote at 44% and that for a No vote at 43%.  When people were asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for independence if there were a Conservative led government or a Conservative/LibDem coalition at Westminster this lead hardens to a total of 50%  likely to vote Yes to independence (41% very likely, 9% quite likely).  A total of 41% would vote No with 8% who don’t know.

Polls have previously shown that a Conservative government in Westminster would make a ‘Yes’ vote more likely but this latest poll shows that a Labour led government at Westminster would also make a ‘Yes’ vote more likely, though by slightly less, with 47% likely and 42% unlikely to vote for an independent Scotland.

Commenting on the findings, Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said:

“These are extremely positive findings, showing Yes ahead under the scenarios of both Tory and Labour governments at Westminster – they reinforce the other key result that people trust the Scottish Government rather than Westminster to take decisions for Scotland by a margin of nearly four-to-one.  These conclusions all underline the strength and potential of the Yes vote.

“Polls will move up and down between now and next September as the debate over Scotland’s future gathers pace – but what these very encouraging figures underline is that Yes can win and I believe will win next September.”

The Panelbase poll also asked

* There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?

(Change from July 2013 Panelbase/Sunday Times poll in brackets):
Yes: 44% (+7)
No: 43% (-3)
Don’t Know: 13% (-4)

* Who do you trust to take the best decisions for Scotland: the Scottish Government or the Westminster Government?

The Scottish Government: 60%
The Westminster Government: 16%
Neither: 19%
Don’t Know: 5%

* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: ‘Scotland could be a successful independent country’.
Yes, I agree: 52%
No, I disagree: 37%
Don’t Know: 11%


2013-09-04 08:02

Nice to see the change but keep working. This will be won at the YES events / in the pub / outside the school gates / at the football / in the workplace / on social media/ etc

Keep working to 10pm on the day we vote. We must put this beyond the manipulation of the postal vote riggers etc ( one of the unionist partners has form in this regard). Remember NO will be bringing up coach loads of labour party activists from the North of England as we approach the vote.
Mad Jock McMad
2013-09-04 09:02

Clootie – if they try that I think you will find it will be a case of ‘Bring on the empty buses’. I think amongst folk on the ground few in the North will grudge Scots our get out of jail card.

GMB has reduced their ‘donation’ to Labour from £1.5 million to £150,000 this year. Labour is reliant on the Unions for boots on the ground as well as funding.

The Battle of Falkirk is still playing out as other Unions are now talking seriously following the GMB’s cut in Labour funding to levels of their known Labour membership levels.
2013-09-04 09:53


I was going by my experience of by-elections and Scottish elections. In 2011 they appeared in Aberdeen with their little bags and Labour badges.

I hope you are right.

2013-09-04 08:39

I notice that this Panelbase poll is called an SNP poll in the MSM. The WoS poll was ignored because it wasn’t properly constructed according to Curtice. The other polling companies although backed by the Tories are portrayed as neutral with no mention of who paid for the polls. The media need to make it clear in every case who has commissioned and paid for the poll. Analysing the questions and methodology is legitimate and informative.
2013-09-04 10:20

clootie / M.J.McM
Surely with it being a referendum as against an election , they wont be allowed to bus loads of ukipers up from England or over from Ulster .
Have to admit though that going by past dirty tricks anything is possible .
2013-09-05 07:26

In my naivety I thought that they would not be allowed to bus in activists from outside Scotland due to it being a referendum but at a YES meeting in Airdrie last night we were informed that they are going to bus in activists from outside Scotland as they don’t have the boots on the ground to do their dirty work for them .

You must be logged-in in order to post a comment.