By a Newsnet reporter
The independence referendum has taken another dramatic turn with a new poll showing the gap between Yes and No is now sitting at just five points.
A Survation poll, commissioned on behalf of the Daily Record, puts Yes on 39% with No on 44%.

The new poll puts support for independence up two points and those against down three when compared to a similar survey four weeks ago.

Stripping out those who are undecided, the poll has Yes on 47% and No on 53%.

The survey also found that most Scots will vote Yes if they believe the Conservatives will win the next UK election.

Asked for their views if David Cameron remains PM, most said they would vote Yes – 44% – against only 38% who would vote No.  This would give the Yes campaign a 54% v 46% lead with undecided stripped out.

Speaking to the Daily Record, polling expert John Curtice said: “This should act as a warning sign to the No side that they can take nothing for granted about the result.”

The Strathclyde University professor added: “One of the things to watch over the summer is that a rise in the polls for the Tories as far as the Westminster general election is concerned could mean some Scots reconsidering their referendum vote.”

The results will cause significant concern to the No campaign with the poll confirming the trend from No to Yes.  It comes as the Conservatives continue to erode the lead enjoyed by the Labour party across the UK with recent polls showing David Cameron’s party now virtually neck and neck with Ed Miliband’s Labour party.

Commenting, Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins said: “This poll confirms the Yes message that Scotland is an exceptionally wealthy country – more prosperous per head than the UK, France and Japan – but that we need independence to make our wealth work for all the people – is getting through. This is the best Survation poll of the campaign so far – the gap between Yes and No has halved since last month – and Yes now only needs a three-point swing to move ahead.

“The poll also highlights the strong appeal of the guarantee that Scotland always gets the government we vote for only with independence – instead of being inflicted with Tory governments under the Westminster system.

“If people think the Tories are getting back in next year, Yes leads No by 54 per cent to 46 per cent, excluding undecideds. This independence guarantee is undoubtedly a major factor in persuading more and more Labour voters and members to vote Yes, and we believe this support will continue to grow in the run-up to 18 September.”

Better Together chief Blair McDougall highlighted his campaign’s lead, and said: “This is yet another poll showing the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK ahead.”

He added: “there can be no complacency from those of us who passionately believe that being part of the UK secures the brightest future for Scotland.”


2014-06-12 07:10

Amazing! There are folk out there who think the Labour party lead by Ed is a better option than the Tory party lead by Dave – when there is really no difference between the two.
Neither will be of any use to those of us in Scotland ,neither will give tuppeny damn about us after they garner the votes and stick their faces in the trough.

Let’s really make a change – and it will be for the entire UK.
Vote YES for a better ,more engaged and engaging Scotland and let those south of the border enjoy the opportunities for change that our independence will make for them.
2014-06-12 07:35

Go figure.

People think they should do what parties tell them instead of t’other way round. Labour says vote this way, so they vote that way kinda thing.

You’d think grown ups would look at the issues outside of party politics and then tell their parties. Haw youse lot! Get behind this idea or you’re oot a joab. Which is kinda how it should work.

For me that’s one of the big attractions of the YES vote, is overhauling the system of governance. Having a say in how to make it and our parties work for us.

2014-06-12 07:19

Here’s the Poll from the P&J;
2014-06-12 11:46

Have to say, this poll is less than useful. If, as they claim, it was halted when automated voting was detected then it should simply be ignored.
I do note the related stories on that page are all pro-No but are old stories going back to January. Yet more selective reporting from the media.

2014-06-12 08:14

Those Labour voters who will vote Yes if they think this will stop a Tory next year need to realise that a No vote is a guarantee of further Tory governments down the line should English voters decide.
This vote is not about party politics,althou  gh that is how British Labour have been trying to play it.
2014-06-12 08:17

I am astounded at the speed of the Better Together make over!
“Better Together. No Thanks” really is getting the message across!
2014-06-12 08:55

You know, when Better Together No Thanks gets really desperate, when all their smears, fears, re-brands, and relaunches have all failed and come to nothing, they might feel the time has come to let loose their ultimate weapon…. The POSITIVE case for the union.
Many say it doesn’t exist, but maybe that is just the stealth technology, an invisibility cloak, and Wee Johann is going to stun us all at today’s FMQ when she draws a line under all the negativity and muck slinging, and unveils the progressive case for keeping the Union together; the jewel in Better Together’s crown…

Yeah. Right. They might actually need Harry Potter to pull that one off…
2014-06-12 09:01

I put this on Wings yesterday.

What nonsense a joint agreement with 3 parties on more power for Scotland. Firstly there are 4 No parties – lest we forget UKIP. Secondly the LibDems will be gone in 2015. Thirdly Labour have to win in 2015 to meet any promises. Fourthly the Tories will only win in coalition with UKIP in 2015. Which will give the Tories all the excuse they need to renege again on more powers for Scotland. Vote YES.

Perhaps the agreement will be written in the sand so it can be easily blown away!!
2014-06-12 09:28

Quote article: “The survey also found that most Scots will vote Yes if they believe the Conservatives will win the next UK election.

Is that why the BBC gave UKIP so much publicity before the EURO’s. To damage the Tory Vote.
2014-06-12 09:38

This is a great slogan for us in the YES side,BT having changed 3 times could they not see what a gift this was,what a bunch of numpties.
Leader of the Pack
2014-06-12 11:15

“One of the things to watch over the summer is that a rise in the polls for the Tories as far as the Westminster general election is concerned could mean some Scots reconsidering their referendum vote.”

Cue a spate of polls from the usual sources showing an increase in support for Labour in spite of all other indictions on the ground. Its about time folk realised that polling is just another election and party political tool to play with. I truly believe the Yes campaign has been ahead in support for some time now.
2014-06-12 13:31

Couldn’t agree more, only one person I know is voting no (I have tried to convince him but at 86 there’s no way on changing his mind on anything) three have changed there minds after the BBCs constant negative sh#t# shoveling as there now convinced they are lying with all the constant negative about independence.
Keep it up BBC more will see you for what you are!!!!

2014-06-12 11:47

I get the feeling that MSM have overplayed their hand and folk are taking what they say with an ever bigger pinch of salt.For example,let’s look at the MSM “vile cybernat” narrative.When folk go online to see it for themselves,they find its a lot of nonsense.And thus increases their awareness of media bias.They then give less credence to what the media tell them on other matters to do with the referendum.People aren’t stupid.They realise Westminster isn’t going in the direction they want.
2014-06-12 18:11

YES 39%, NO 44%, D/K 17%.

So, if the D/Ks break 2 to 1 in favour of YES (that seems to be the trend) then the referendum result will be:

YES 50.3%
NO 49.7%

Factor in the 2% (at least) advantage YES will have in getting its vote out on the day and it will be an easy win.

Bring it on!
2014-06-12 18:58

Amazing in depth report over on Bella on Scotland`s oil and gas resources reckoned to be in the region of 4 Trillion pounds.
No wonder we are being lied to.
2014-06-12 20:05

Yes,if the Labour voters in the West of Scotland ever realise that the reason they haven’t benefited from the oil boom that the Aberdeen area has is because London has prevented it then I wouldn’t like to be a Labour politician in that area.
The No hopers don’t want this information to be made public.

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