By a Newsnet reporter
Only around a third of people trust the Westminster parties to deliver more powers for Scotland, according to an analysis of independence referendum polls published by the Library of the House of Lords.
The study, which looked at surveys from several polling companies, also concluded that the referendum race will be too close to call.

The analysis found that only 30% of people in Scotland believe that more powers will be devolved in the event of a No vote, despite the promises of the three Unionist parties.

The result reflects the findings of a recent Panelbase poll commissioned by Yes Scotland which found only 35 per cent of respondents trust the Westminster parties to deliver any extra powers in the event of a No vote.  That same survey put the gap between Yes and No at just 3%.

The Lords Library looked at data from Ipsos MORI, ICM, Panelbase, Survation, TNS-BMRB and YouGov from as far back as 1979.  It also included data from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey.

It concluded: “In spite of what polling and survey data can tell us, there are many uncertainties surrounding the outcome of the independence referendum.

“Ultimately, pollsters and campaigners alike will have to wait until September 18 to see how the Scottish public will vote.”

A single poll which showed Yes in front was believed to have been skewed by having a leading question before the independence question.  However the analysis also highlighted inconsistencies in other polls which left experts, “unsure whether No still enjoy a relatively comfortable lead or whether the Yes side are at least within sight of the winning post”.

Some observers have already highlighted an overrepresentation in No leaning groups amongst certain pollsters.  It is also known that the samples used by pollsters may not in fact reflect the views of people who do not take part in general elections but who will take part in the referendum.

Commenting on the analysis, Blair Jenkins, Chief Executive of Yes Scotland, said:

“The empty promises by the anti-independence parties of more powers for the Scottish Parliament is evidence that the ground is shifting beneath them.

“They know they are losing the argument and that is the only reason they are now talking about more powers.

“But these figures show that only a third of people in Scotland trust them to deliver – and in any event what is being proposed falls far short of what Scotland needs.  What we need are powers over job creation, welfare and defence so that we can build a more prosperous, fairer country which is free of nuclear weapons.

Highlighting a recent spat between Labour and the Conservatives which saw Labour’s devolution proposals described as a “horrible compromise”, Mr Jenkins added:

“And the Westminster parties are now attacking each other’s proposals – if the No campaign parties don’t believe each other, why should the people if Scotland?
“I believe that as people focus more and more on this debate, they will conclude that all the decisions about Scotland need to be made by people living here, because we are best placed to make them.”


2014-06-24 14:35

I have a question – Can GCC remove people from the voters register for non payment of council tax? If yes would the NO Thanks campaign or the Yes campaign benefit most from this action? Is Labour in control of GCC? I believe the poorest areas of Glasgow have indicated a preference for Yes. Just curious!!
2014-06-24 15:28

I do wish the Yes campaign would desist from concentrating on whether or not we can trust the next UK government to devolve more powers (which in essence amount only to devolution of mainly income tax). What needs to made clear to everybody is that these proposals are no more than a confidence trick: the Barnet formula dole back of Scotland’s VAT, excise duties, corporation tax etc will be reduced and when we complain that we can no longer finance our public services on our reduced “pocket money” we will be told to raise income tax to make up the difference.
2014-06-24 15:31

Only a Yes vote puts us in as position of deciding what we share,with whom and under what conditions.
A No vote means we abrograte all responsibilitie  s to someone else.
2014-06-24 16:10

Slightly Off Topic. I have just received an unsolicited leaflet through my door with the HM Governmentstamp on it entitled ‘What staying in the United Kingdom means for Scotland’. It has left me seething with rage. It is full of un-evidenced propaganda telling us why we should stay in the Union. I don’t think many Scots will believe the ordure written in it as the polls in your article suggest. Will the Tories send out leaflets to promote their re-election at the UK General Election? Or is this contempt reserved only for Scots?
It has been produced and delivered at taxpayers’ expense.
2014-06-24 17:03

Send it on to
Better Together


5 Blythswood Square

G2 4AD
Say, No thanks.
2014-06-24 21:33

Even better send it one page at a time to the above address.
2014-06-25 11:26

Ours arrived today, just off to post it.

2014-06-24 16:20

Surely this means that 70% of Scots believe that Lamont, Davidson and Rennie are liars.

That should cheer Project Smear and their supporters up.
2014-06-24 16:49

Let’s not kid ourselves. The reason that DevoMAX was taken out the back and shot wasn’t really to scupper Alex Salmond’s multi-option referendum. If they’d actually thought about, they should have bent themselves double making sure the WAS a middle road option if only to drive a wedge into the ranks of the YES/Undecided voters.

The real reason they killed of DevoMAX was because these Unionists wanted to maintain the illusion there was unity & common purpose in opposing Independence, but getting the three ferrets in the same sack to agree on something as complex as more devolution of power was always going to turn into an undignified screaming match.
Since they didn’t even attempt to settle their differences when it might actually have mattered, preferring to fudge the issue for appearances sake, does anyone seriously believe they will somehow settle these differences to deliver more powers if we have just been stupid enough to vote NO?
2014-06-25 14:05

30% of people believe that we will get more powers?


Who are these people? Where have they been…Mars? Westminster promises as has been proven time and time again mean absolutely nothing!

I find it incomprehensibl  e and frankly quite scary that the number is so high.

What does Westminster have to do to us for people to believe that they do not care about us?

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