Monday, 11 March 2013 03:06
By William C McLaughlin BA(Hons), MBA
Let’s dispel once and for all the myth that Scottish oil and natural gas reserves are declining and will run out for good in another forty years.
The Scottish North Sea has been ‘pumping’ out oil and natural gas for around forty years. The current projection is that there is around forty years of oil and natural gas reserves remaining in the Scottish North Sea, worth around £1 trillion in associated revenues.
ENEGI OIL has developed an innovative, unmanned, oil production buoy system, which will transform the economics of a host of undeveloped discoveries in the Scottish North Sea, and could be used effectively in marginal and end of life fields to extend the life of these fields considerably. Extraction technology like this one could well extend significantly the life of the Scottish North Sea for another ten or twenty years (well beyond the forty years forecasted limit), giving a total oil and natural gas production life for the Scottish North Sea of close on one hundred years since the time extraction began.
Then, we have the massive Scottish North Atlantic sector oil and natural gas fields, off Scotland`s west coast, which is predicted to contain two or three times the amount of oil and natural gas as the Scottish North Sea sector. The Scottish ‘Atlantic Frontier’ for oil and natural gas goes way out beyond Rockall. London has earmarked over 2500 licensing blocks for sale in the Scottish North Atlantic sector.
Assuming oil and natural gas extraction rates in the Scottish North Atlantic sector will be similar to the Scottish North Sea, then it will take a very long time indeed to empty the Scottish North Atlantic sector of oil and natural gas. If it takes around 100 years to deplete the Scottish North Sea of oil and natural gas, and the Scottish North Atlantic sector is two or three times larger in oil and natural gas reserves, then work out the maths for yourself. It`s mind boggling in terms of sector life span, reserves and revenue.
Finally, we have Scottish mainland oil and natural gas reserves – a well kept secret – the oil and natural gas (not including methane) reserves right under Scottish feet.
Many years ago I read a report from an eminent Professor of Oil Economics who stated that the Scottish mainland oil and natural gas reserves were as large as (or more than) all of the Scottish North Sea reserves before extraction began in that sector. Assuming that report is correct, and I have no reason to doubt its integrity, then we have over 100 years of oil and natural gas right below us in Scotland.
The income from what remains in the Scottish North Sea, all of the Scottish North Atlantic sector, and all the Scottish mainland oil and natural gas, will come to trillions and trillions of pounds. This does not include the thousands of years of Scottish onshore and offshore coal-bed methane gas reserves.
We are talking about a lot of years, a lot of oil and natural gas, and a lot of revenues remaining. The Scottish oil and gas patient is far from dead and is, in fact, in very rude health. An independent Scotland could not only restructure its economy and create a Sovereign Scottish Oil Fund, but also achieve one of the most egalitarian and caring societies in the world.
Do the media and politicians in other oil producing countries moan and whine about their oil declining and its price volatility? Of course they don’t. They get on with it and enjoy their oil revenues, and some invest the revenues wisely for posterity.
Hand wringing about Scottish oil and natural gas declining is the equivalent of winning millions on the Lottery Jackpot and moaning that it is declining after spending the first pound or that the volatility of the foreign exchange rate when you travel or invest abroad, decreases your spending power in some cases. It’s all the more ironic when somebody stole your winning ticket.
Do NOT listen to the Unionist scaremongers – there is no ‘sunset’ on Scottish oil and gas – more like ‘sunrise’. This vast wealth is only one revenue stream and Scotland is blessed with many more. Scotland is a very capable and very wealthy country.
Don’t take my word for it – check out the asset data for yourself. Scotland is literally floating in oil and gas – the birth-right of every man, woman, and child in Scotland. Why on earth therefore, would anyone in their right mind, choose to give away this birth-right? A `NO` vote in 2014 will indeed do just that and continue to give away this super-massive Scottish wealth to London.
In years to come, when your children and grandchildren are old enough to ask you what happened to their birth-right, what will your reply be?
As President Roosevelt once said, “Do not tell me that it is impossible”.
Comments
2013-03-10 21:40
I have never seen or heard anything to support this premise, Hopefully the SNP’s paper on Oil resources due out soon will expand on all areas of O+G not just North Sea and West of Shetland.
Also nobody seems to be mentioning fire ice which is frozen methane and estimates I have seen is that Scotland has approx 300 years worth…
We need to get out what the potential is for the oil and gas sector, its not dead or dying its on the up….
2013-03-11 14:03
2013-03-10 22:14
Perhaps it would be prudent to wait and see what the SNP government’s forthcoming report on oil and gas has to say before we get too excited and start opening the champagne……..
2013-03-10 22:29
2013-03-10 22:40
Notice the vast area that is still unlicensed! Also, It appears from the maps that licenses are issued methodically, starting furthest away on the maritime borders with other North Sea countries and working towards the mainland. They are also extracting oil and gas West of Shetland. Another area West of the Outer Hebrides is potentially rich in resources. Wouldn’t be surprised if the 100 year estimate is an underestimate..
2013-03-10 22:48
2013-03-10 23:07
This prospect of oil and the other finites will swing the votes make no mistake – if we explain the spin off stuff that will create jobs for those onshore in all types of work.
To vote no is unthinkable!
2013-03-10 22:57
This could be as “explosive” as the McCrone report from ‘76, or indeed potentially more so.
Piece by piece, the jigsaw falls into place.
Our only (well, actually one of many) hurdle is to communicate this information to our fellow citizens.
We MUST get a channel of communication out to “John & Joan Scotland“.
2013-03-10 23:04
[Admin – Your posts frequently have line breaks in the middle of sentences. Thus far we have sorted the posts. Can you address this please.]
2013-03-10 23:29
“We MUST get a channel of communication out to “John & Joan Scotland“.” Total agreement, that is the key that opens the door to independence.
2013-03-10 23:30
telegraph.co.uk/…/…
2013-03-10 23:45
2013-03-11 00:52
90% is the figure derived from the internationally recognized median line.
There is no mention of the stolen oil fields in that article or how much they are worth. You would think an honest article would mention that.
However according to Craig Murray an international expert on the subject (Former Head of the FCO Maritime Section and .. personally .. involved in negotiating most of the UK’s maritime boundaries, including with Ireland, France, Denmark and Belgium): craigmurray.org.uk/…/…
The latest GERS figures do not include the stolen fields in Scotland’s accounts and international law will return those fields to Scotland in due course. They really are quite far north of England. 🙂 tsk tsk.
2013-03-11 10:20
The latest GERS figures do not include the stolen fields in Scotland’s accounts and international law will return those fields to Scotland in due course. They really are quite far north of England. 🙂 tsk tsk.
Thanks for that clarification XYZ. Their return will add several billions more in additional revenues to a Scottish treasury over the years. Thanks also for the link to the Guardian article which contains some useful additional information (plus the unusual negative reader comments) It looks like a growing number of our neighbours are beginning to accept the reality of living with an independent Scotland. What a pity there has been so little focus on raising the awareness of our fellow Scots to the benefits of our oil for the past thirty years
2013-03-11 15:31
2013-03-11 00:05
An Independent Scotland that takes direct responsibility for the O&G; resource will become one of the richest nations in world.
Under the Union, Westminster continues to sell options to Scottish O&G; and the proceeds go direct to the London Treasury. Westminster rip-off Scotland again!!!!
2013-03-11 00:49
If it’s true a YES vote is virtually assured. But personally I would like to know a bit more about William rather than a sketchy glimpse of his credentials.
[Admin – Newsnet Scotland does not demand personal or background information from contributors.]
2013-03-11 01:44
2013-03-11 07:36
Call this McCrone II.
2013-03-11 07:40
Visit Aberdeen and look at the number of new office blocks and hotels being built.
If the Industry and support infrastructure are putting their money into the future of the Industry in this manner then you can bet its for the long haul.
Think tanks are talking shops set up by Labour to be quoted by the BBC in Scotland – look at the facts – real cash being invested by companies who do not invest without careful assessment.
I cannot believe the people of Scotland will fall for the same lies again!
The NO campaign of fear instead of a positive case is because the positive examples are all for Westminster not Scotland.
2013-03-11 08:08
Scotlands rich.Obviously.But the NO lot think we’re too stupid to handle our wealth wisely.I think thats very insulting.
2013-03-11 08:08
Westminster has had the opportunity to use this tremendous resource to build for our future but because they lacked the vision and foresight of the Norwegians, they squandered one opportunity after another. Norway by comparison is set to benefit from their wisdom and prudence for centuries to come.
It is vital to secure a YES vote, but when we do, it is equally important that we don’t let greed get in the way of sensible and prudent investment. Let’s look upon this as the Norwegians did, rather than the short sighted avarice of Westminster.
If we get it wrong in 2014, we might never get another chance.
2013-03-11 08:47
This good news has upset Alisdair Darling who is in The Torygraph this morning saying all this talk of an oil boom is nonsense.
[Admin – Removed, there is already an e-petition to the UK Parliament: epetitions.direct.gov.uk/…/…]
E-petition to Scottish Parliament scottish.parliament.uk/…/…
2013-03-11 13:11
Forty or more years later, following record new investment last year in the North Sea, the unionists still scream about how little there is to benefit from the North Sea.
I don’t know why the SNP and other independentista s don’t use the footage of Labour/Tory/Liberal spokesmen (it was always spokesMEN) from the seventies onwards spouting their bare-faced lies and then compare that with the devastation they have visited on communities across Scotland in that time.
2013-03-11 08:57
‘Better no’ and almost the entire UK media spent the better part of a week telling us just how doomed we were in terms of income and expenditure. Penniless without a friend in the world, oh horror. When the SGs oil industry report hits the deck with the soon to be released white paper, an awful lot of titles, journos and politicos are going to be left with egg on face.
Can’t wait. 🙂
2013-03-11 09:47
Roll on 2014 and the big YES !!
2013-03-11 13:13
No sooner said than linked.
Scotgov’s own analytical bulletin on oil industry released today and attendant links. The future looks a lot brighter when you can wave some good news in front of the opposition noses.
I agree, VOTE YES 2014. 🙂
2013-03-11 09:51
Now with the recent grab for new licences and upwards investment, the oil companies know a thing or two and I would believe in their actions rather than Unionist politicians.
found it …
2013-03-11 09:55
I am a retired chauffeur. 5 years ago I was driving an American gent around Scotland, he told me that he was in the oil & gas exploration business and that apart from massive reserves in the north sea, a much larger oil field is on our west coast which will see Scotland becoming one of the richest nations on earth. he finished by saying: dont give this lot away!!
2013-03-11 10:11
Whilst I have no doubt the potential of our oil and gas reserves quoted in this article are correct, I would be careful of shouting from the rooftops that this “proves” anything. It is an opinion, not a piece of scientific research, and we don’t want to be accused of deploying the same tactics as the opposition of positing assertions instead of facts. That said, I do think the article should receive the widest possible distribution as an opinion which is more credible than the obvious rubbish punted by the NO lot, using as they do the most negative projections (which are obviously assertions and not scientific facts!)from the dodgy OBR
2013-03-11 10:16
2013-03-11 10:19
On a bright note.
50000 leaflets directing the citizens of Glasgow and Strathclyde towards 12 cyber sites headed by Newsnet Scotland and including Wings Over Scotland, Labour for Independence and Women for Independence and others.
Yes Scotland will help organise distribution
2013-03-11 12:07
Perhaps you could get in touch with
We are hoping to do something similar,
be more than willing to help out with this
and perhaps pull resources/effort for further projects.
This is exactly what needs done.
2013-03-11 10:51
The EU knows Scotlands natural potential Nato knows Scotlands natural strategic worth. Neither of these organisations can afford not to have Scotland as part of their fold. Scotland is in a position to dictate terms and conditions to any organisation or treaty of nations because of its worth in many areas.
The continual denegration of Scotlands worth is the mainstream tactic of the No campaign. Its worth too much to the UK also to allow it to leave without a fight.
2013-03-11 11:40
No mention that it’s not the SG that is saying this. I await the BBC Scotland tv and radio version of this story (maybe they wont report on it)
Smear the man and cloud the issue is their only tactic – and hey! It might work.
2013-03-11 11:43
bbc.co.uk/…/…
All of which is further good news for us!
2013-03-11 12:52
2013-03-11 12:10
2013-03-11 12:36
Mr Salmond’s vision is for a ‘Greener Scotland’. How can Scotland be green if for the next 100years the backbone of our economy is going to be filthy fossil fuel? Makes a mockery of all these wind turbines doesn’t it?
If we really do have such accessible reserves, why have no companies explored them before now?
I look forward to your responses,
2013-03-11 16:59
Oil is used in many more things other than just fuel, such as lubricants, plastics, detergents, asphalt, solvents, inks, tyres, insecticides, fertilisers, soaps and many many other uses which make up the oil industry as a whole. We may be rid of fossil fuel burning by the middle of this century but oil will still be used for other things. Green energy will replace fossil-fuel based energy in the long-term, rather be ahead and develop that infrastructure now than playing catch up against rising import energy prices in the future. This way Scotland can always be a net exporter of energy and reap the rewards. We only need 10 per cent of the energy than we can potentially produce.
2013-03-11 17:36
2013-03-11 21:32
“Ernst & Young’s report highlights a sector in robust health. With up to 24 billion barrels of oil and gas left to recover in the UK, continued investment in our own reserves bodes well for the supply chain and, subsequently, UK employment, tax revenues, energy security and balance of trade.”
2013-03-11 12:46
Thank you for the support. Have been very much on my own with this project although people do seem to like the idea.
Help with distribution may not be forth coming but nothing that cannot be handled otherwise. Newsnet should have the PDF of the leaflet. Maybe they could put it up somewhere?
2013-03-11 15:13
Don’t think you can do much more than 6.
Wanted to have others, and blogs and information sites and audio and tube recommends etc.
Eventually I twigged that what we really need is one website which acts as a collator for all the good pro indy stuff and acts as a conduit.
The above 6 of the best would be on the FP
There would be no comment or opinion given by the site, just links.
Although, there could be a Today’s Top Story box and Recommended Reads box for each title.
Working title ‘Alternative Voice’.
That way we only need to promote one site and if there are changes e.g. urls for the titles then that is easily fixed.
contact me on FB Chic McGregor
Going out to deliver Yes material for the next couple of hours.
2013-03-11 20:52
Covering Defence, Finance, Who owns Scotland, the EU, former members of the British Empire (55) would you believe, America 1783, what became of them,pop. numbers. With web links.
Stuck on finance just now.
2013-03-11 12:49
All set to put drilling rig in back garden if I can get Planning approval !
2013-03-11 13:03
As with austerity, the red tories prefer just a slightly less nastier version of what their blue Tory friends have in mind.
2013-03-11 13:22
2013-03-12 02:45
Colour Maps displaying Quadrants with Significant Activity
However.. (scroll right down)
SEA7 Socio-economics
This report assesses the socio-economic implications of further oil and gas licensing the SEA7 area.
The Department of Trade and Industry provided scenarios of possible exploration and development activity in the area and these scenarios were converted into optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. They were then used to produce forecasts of: oil and gas production; oil and gas reserves; expenditure; employment; and tax revenues.
CONTINUES..
2013-03-11 13:51
Who are people going to believe…Alastair Darling or the oil companies who are currently investing £billions in the sector?
Maybe he is interested in investing in oil stocks and trying to talk down the prospects so that he can buy cheap and sell high after the referendum is out of the way and things miraculously start to look up.
For once that might be a smart financial move.
2013-03-11 14:08
2013-03-11 20:35
The BBC news at 6 tonight has just said, and why would you disbelieve the BBC, that it is Orkney’s oil. So there.
Tavish Scott has confirmed it, it has to be true.
2013-03-12 01:14
First, in the modern world, partition is not recognised. e.g. the Native American semi-antonymous nations of Northern Quebec who were almost 100% in favour of remaining with Canada, were not allowed (i.e. not be recognised by the UN) to do so.
They would need to have a new referendum after independence, to secede from Scotland.
Also, if they wanted to rejoin the UK, that would fall foul as well, that was the mistake of the South Ossetian referendum (to simultaneously rejoin the Russian Federation).
They would need to leave, and then after some decent interval, apply to become English.
Second, whether they automatically became English or whether they later joined the rUK/England, they would then under the law of the sea be a small, very small, archipelagic exclave of England, a foreign country, on Scotland’s Continental Shelf, and therefore would only be entitled to the 12 mile limit and would not inherit Continental Shelf rights.
2013-03-12 08:32
Give us all your oil Orkney, and while you’re living on benefits we hand you back, we’ll use the money to buy weapons of mass destruction for the good of humanity.
Why, Orkney has such a small and poor economy, they would be mad to turn down such a wonderfully generous offer from us. We might even let them keep their own parliament if they wanted one!
Now tell me Tavish Scott, who could resist an offer like that?
2013-03-11 22:10
2013-03-12 11:16
It certainly would be a good idea to show the devastation experienced in Scottish industries from that time onwards, indicating how successive unionist governments made an absolute mess of things. A good slogan would be: “Instead of Scottish prosperity, we have unionist austerity”.
Vote YES for Scotland in 2014 or we’ll have unprecedented austerity.
2013-03-12 19:26
“I’m sorry, guys. You are ALL wrong.
The BBC news at 6 tonight has just said, and why would you disbelieve the BBC, that it is Orkney’s oil. So there.
Tavish Scott has confirmed it, it has to be true.”
I was being facetious. I did not think anyone would take it at face value.
But the item WAS on the news with Bird reading it.
Re. my post at 20.52, can anyone direct me to a site which has details of our financial position ie block grant,crown land, sources of income going to London, the hidden money flows, do we pay something to crossrail, defence attributed to us but spent in the South. You know what I mean.
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